John,
The chances are that you're not replacing the rail line by a busway along the same corridor. This means that your replacement buses would be following different routings than the trains, even if only slightly. There are so many factors that will affect the ridership that it is impossible to generalize from one situation to the next, for example:
- what is the difference in travel time for each passenger?
- what is the reliability of the service? (i.e. traffic congestion for the buses)
- what frequency of service is offered?
- are intermediate destinations being lost? (i.e. passengers from the end of the train line to intermediate stations, versus express buses from each outlying station directly to the downtown of the major city without intermediate stops)
- how close are the train stations and bus stops to peoples' origins? (i.e. what is the walk-in catchment area, and/or what feeder services/park&ride are available?)
- and finally, the hard-to-quantify "human factor" of the local perception of buses versus trains by the population (are you using comfortable highway coaches, etc.?)
It's easy to find statistics that ridership increased by X% when a rail line in introduced into a community. What these statistics do not tell you is that they are virtually always comparing a poor level of service (slow operation in unreliable mixed traffic) with a much better level of service (faster and more reliable service on right-of-way separated from other traffic congestion). Of course one would expect higher ridership on a higher quality service, regardless of the vehicle technology employed.
(Apologies for the tardy response. I got behind and am currently cleaning out some old e-mail.)
All opinions are my own, not those of my employer
--------------
Colin R. Leech, P.Eng./ing.
Senior Engineer, Transit Priority
Ingénieur principal, Priorité du T.C.
City of Ottawa/Ville d'Ottawa
613-580-2424 ext./poste 13826
[log in to unmask]
--------------
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Universities Transport Study Group
> [mailto:[log in to unmask]]On
> Behalf Of John Bolland
> Sent: October 18, 2007 15:56
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: [UTSG] Bus & Rail
>
>
> Greetings from New Zealand,
>
>
>
> I'm doing a hypothetical exercise on the possible replacement of rail
> commuter services by bus. The received wisdom seems to be
> that this will
> have an adverse effect on patronage, perhaps by 20 - 30%.
>
>
>
> Is anyone aware of any real 'case studies' where this has
> been done and, if
> so, what was the impact?
>
>
>
> Many thanks,
>
> John
>
>
>
> John Bolland Consulting
>
>
>
> Tel /Fax (04) 232 6126 Mob 021 264 0941
>
>
>
> [log in to unmask]
>
>
>
> PO Box 51058, Tawa 5249, Wellington
>
>
>
This e-mail originates from the City of Ottawa e-mail
system. Any distribution, use or copying of this e-mail or
the information it contains by other than the intended
recipient(s) is unauthorized. If you are not the intended
recipient, please notify me at the telephone number shown
above or by return e-mail and delete this communication and
any copy immediately. Thank you.
Le présent courriel a été expédié par le système de
courriels de la Ville d'Ottawa. Toute distribution,
utilisation ou reproduction du courriel ou des
renseignements qui s'y trouvent par une personne autre que
son destinataire prévu est interdite. Si vous avez reçu le
message par erreur, veuillez m'en aviser par téléphone (au
numéro précité) ou par courriel, puis supprimer sans délai
la version originale de la communication ainsi que toutes
ses copies. Je vous remercie de votre collaboration.
|