fresh analysis
lifted from
http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=299095
Ethiopia, Eritrea: Tensions High in Border Dispute
November 29, 2007 15 19 GMT
The Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission (EEBC) has
threatened to rule Nov. 30 that the demarcation it has
drawn between Ethiopia and Eritrea will stand -- a
move that could provoke war between the two countries.
War is not likely to come immediately, though, as
Ethiopia remains heavily deployed in Somalia, and the
commission, despite its threat, is likely to leave the
door open for continued negotiations.
The internationally mandated EEBC, fed up with
Ethiopian opposition to its current demarcation, could
make a ruling by Nov. 30, a date the commission
floated a year ago, should either side -- particularly
Ethiopia -- prove unwilling to conclude negotiations.
Because Eritrea accepts the current ruling, it is
unlikely to be the one to attack in an effort to force
a resolution of the border dispute.
The two countries fought a 1998-2000 war -- which
claimed an estimated 70,000 lives -- over the same
border, with Ethiopia never really accepting Eritrea's
independence and Eritrea not accepting the possibility
of once again being under Ethiopia's yoke.
Regardless of the soaring tensions, Ethiopia is not
likely to launch an immediate attack to force a
redrawing of line, as it remains heavily involved in
fighting an Islamist insurgency in Somalia, with
20,000 troops and its best commanders believed to be
deployed in Somalia. However, should Ethiopia withdraw
those troops and commanders to support an operation
against Eritrea, Somalia's Transitional Federal
Government under President Abdullahi Yusuf would very
likely fall to the same Islamists -- the former
Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC) -- that
controlled much of southern and central Somalia in
2006.
Ethiopia's invasion of Somalia in December 2006 --
which forced Addis Ababa to continue its intervention
in the country -- was aimed at preventing the
anti-Ethiopian SICC from following through on its
threat to fight, alongside the Ethiopian rebel group
Ogaden National Liberation Front, to claim Ethiopia's
Ogaden region, which is ethnic Somalian territory. The
African Union peacekeeping force in Somalia --
currently around 1,500 Ugandans, though a Burundian
contingent could deploy in December -- is effectively
incapable of replacing the battle-hardened Ethiopians.
Although tensions will remain high, the EEBC's likely
decision to opt for continued negotiations, coupled
with Ethiopia's continuing preoccupation with fighting
the Somalian insurgency, should keep a lid on the
situation -- at least temporarily.
other opinions posted today
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900SID/PANA-79EK55?OpenDocument
http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/global.php?id=1385638
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