From: Furnival, Alastair [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
Sent: Wed 11/21/2007 13:17
To: Phil Harris
Subject: RE: Australian Election Betting 2007
Thanks Phil. Will be an interesting weekend. An unusual election which
has seen disparate resource focus (Labor on a national campaign,
Liberals in the marginals). Most money is certainly on a change, but
the Government has a tenacity in its marginal seats which will still
make it difficult for Labor to take the requisite 16. Some (horrifying)
prospect of a hung Parliament, and there may also be some unusual Senate
results (Greens in ACT, Qld, independent in SA) - the Territory result
will be the most important, as it changes the dynamics immediately,
rather than in July next year when the States shift.
Regards,
Alastair Furnival
Vice President
CRA International
Level 7, 107 Pitt St
GPO Box 5435, Sydney NSW 2001
Tel: +61 2 8233 4000
Mobile: +61 411 888 975
Fax: +61 2 9223 5187
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-----Original Message-----
From: For people engaged in political marketing research.
[mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Phil Harris
Sent: Wednesday, 21 November 2007 11:07 AM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Australian Election Betting 2007
Thought list members might like to see this information on the
Australian election which is being actively watched ahead of this
weekend's Election.
It would be good if australian members could circulate more material on
the list or to me to keep members posted.
Best wishes
Phil
________________________________
From: Hughes, Andrew [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
Sent: Wed 11/21/2007 11:48
To: Dann, Stephen; Phil Harris; [log in to unmask]
Subject: RE: Election Betting 2007
Interesting to note that Centrebet has Rudd down to win at least 15
seats (50% or more chance of winning). He needs 16 for government. The
first 15 are mainly in the less than 5% swing range. He'll need to pick
up seats in the next swing range of 6-9% to win government. If he does
this it'll be one of the largest swings recorded in recent times. It'll
also show how volatile the Australian electorate is becoming, mainly
because to my thinking they are behaving as consumers, not people who
see voting as being between watching grass grow and paint dry on the
list of activities they prefer to do.
-----Original Message-----
From: Dann, Stephen
Sent: Wed 21/11/2007 06:37
To: Phil Harris; Hughes, Andrew; [log in to unmask]
Cc:
Subject: Election Betting 2007
I've compiled Centrebet's odds on the election for use as a
post-election score card.
As way of how odd this election is - here's the odds for Howard
and Rudd to hold their own seats.
RUDD, Kevin (ALP) 1.001
HOWARD, John (LIB) 1.60
Stephen
Dr Stephen Dann
Senior Lecturer, Marketing
School of Management, Marketing & International Business
ANU College of Business & Economics
LF Crisp Building, 26, Room 1070
The Australian National University
Canberra ACT 0200 Australia
T: +61 2 6125 4516
F: +61 2 6125 8796
W: www.ecocomm.anu.edu.au
CRICOS Provider #00120C
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