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RADSTATS  May 2007

RADSTATS May 2007

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Subject:

Re: OPT.

From:

ray thomas <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

ray thomas <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 28 May 2007 11:23:02 +0100

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (78 lines)

Perhaps that reference to Bangladesh in a Optimum Population Trust Press
Release has confused some members because the Press Release itself is about
a Government Consultation document on housing.  

OPT contends that the Government's Planning and Housing Provision (PHP)
document is analogous to proposing a new global navigation system based on
the concept that the earth is flat.    The OPT argument is that:

1. Any definition of sustainability must take as its starting point the
capacity of a place - whether it is the planet or a nation-state or a local
authority area - to support a given size of population without serious
adverse consequences. In the case of housing , this would entail decisions
about population levels and their relationship to factors such as water
supply, flood alleviation, sewage disposal, air quality, traffic congestion,
transport and energy use and liveability or quality of life. The PHP paper
does not do this. Instead it proceeds from the premiss that there is an
"under-supply" - not, for example, an "over-demand" - in housing and that
this must be rectified. The environmental and social constraints, it is
clear, come a poor second. This is a travesty of the meaning of
sustainability. It suggests that "Plan Monitor and Manage" is little
different from "Predict and Provide."

2. Throughout the paper land is viewed, and described, as a commodity, with
no sense of what sort of land it is, what functions it fulfils
(biodiversity, water supply, agriculture, green lungs ) and no sense either
of its finitude. The implication appears to be that it is an inexhaustible
commodity. This, too, vitiates the main thrust of the document.

3. This approach leads to some blinkered conclusions. For instance, it is
assumed that the "mismatch" between supply and demand must be in some sense
either a market failure or a fault in the planning system. The alternative
conclusion - that housing (and population) in parts of the UK, notably
London and the south-east, may be outstripping carrying capacity and that
the planning system may be reflecting a local appreciation of this - is
thereby ruled out from the beginning.

4. As evidence that this may be the case - that housing/population is
outstripping carrying capacity - several independent/consultants' reports
from regions of the south-east have concluded that local infrastructure
cannot cope with the housing numbers proposed. Housing and population growth
are already placing immense strains on water resources, flood prevention
regimes, natural habitats, air quality, transport systems; they are leading
to crowding, congestion and diminution in quality of life. Seventy-six per
cent of Britons, according to a YouGov poll, think the UK is overcrowded.
Global density comparisons show that only four countries larger than the UK
(Vietnam, the Philippines, India and Japan) have higher population
densities. Only one country larger than England (Bangladesh) has a higher
population density. (England's area is half that of the UK but its density
is nearly 60 per cent higher. Bangladesh is smaller in area than the UK but
larger than England.).

5. The OPT's view is that any proposed housing planning system must start
from a realistic assessment of an area's carrying capacity, which must
include a judgement about what human numbers are ecologically sustainable
and what are not. The point of "sustainability appraisal" is that it
includes the possibility of some developments being classed as
unsustainable. The fact that this possibility is not considered within this
paper, in the context of national housing strategy - that housing will be
"sustainable", irrespective of numbers - renders its use of the
sustainability concept flexible to the point of meaninglessness. A national
housing strategy, in the OPT's view, should include a national population
policy and some view of what sustainable or optimum numbers are for the UK.
The OPT believes that forecast increases in the UK population to nearly 67
million by 2050, which would mean at least another 5 million houses at
predicted household formation rates, will clearly exceed carrying capacity
and breach any reasonable criteria of sustainability. 

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