The View from Europe
  By David Jessop
   
  Is the Doha round of global trade negotiations at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) edging closer to some sort of conclusion? 
   
  Statements made in the last few days suggest that as far as the four main players are concerned – the US, Europe, India and Brazil – progress is being made. 
   
  Following the annual meeting of the OECD in Paris on May 16, the WTO Director General, Pascal Lamy, noted to the media that the round was no longer deadlocked. ‘It may not be moving at the speed we would all like to see, but it is moving,' he told journalists. His comments were echoed by the United States Trade Representative, Susan Schwab but who warned that progress was patchy.
   
  This appears to be the first genuinely positive assessment since the Doha Round was formally suspended in July 2006. 
   
  What it reflects is an effort by the four to try to make limited progress before the US President’s fast track negotiating authority expires on June 30 so that a framework agreement might be in place by late 2007.
   
  To this end, it was made clear at the OECD Forum that the US, the EU, India and Brazil intend to increase the frequency of their exchanges with additional meetings planned for London on June 10 and a further session from June 14-19 at an as yet to be determined location.
   
  On reason for this apparent progress is that the EU and the US appear to have narrowed their differences on agricultural tariffs and subsidies although what this means numerically has yet to be revealed. 
   
  Outside of these discussions some progress also appears to have been made on negotiations on industrial goods. According to Mr Lamy there has also been positive movement on services, rules and fisheries. These discussions, he has said, are now moving from the theory of what WTO members might do, to a "to do list," suggesting that real progress is being made towards commitments on tariff reductions. 
   
  A continuing difficulty that remains is the expiry of the US President’s fast track trade negotiating authority in June. Unless Congress were to agree to renew his mandate, the President Bush will after that date lose his ability to seek a straight yes or no vote on trade agreements. Without this, any trade agreement with the US could be picked apart. 
   
  Interestingly however, Peter Allgeier, the US Ambassador to the WTO, recently noted that the US Congress would be more likely to agree to a new fast track mandate if talks in Geneva appeared likely to produce an agreement that substantially increases market access. And it is this that appears to be driving the US, the EU, Brazil and India to try to make real progress in the remaining time left.
   
  Despite this uncertainty still surrounds the way in which nations other than the big four will react and the apparent absence of transparency in the negotiating process. 
   
  Although it is widely recognised that unless Brazil and India can reach agreement with the US and Europe on agriculture then nothing at all will happen, the process does not lend itself well to the WTO’s consensus based decision making mechanism. 
   
  Developing countries make up two-thirds of the WTO's Membership, and there remain many contentious issues they are far from happy with. For instance, a continuing debate within the WTO centres on how to resolve the issue of removing a proportion of some developing nation products and commodities from tariff liberalisation by declaring them special. 
   
  The special category relates to products that developing countries alone will be allowed to shield from tariff reductions on the grounds of ‘food security, livelihood security, and rural development needs’. On this issue it seems that WTO members are still a long way from agreeing to the twenty per cent of lines that many developing nations want designated as special. So much so that there remains a view in Geneva that this issue may yet cause the Doha Round to fail. 
   
  There are also problems with the issue of sensitive products: those on which developed and developing countries will be allowed to make gentler tariff cuts in exchange for creating new import quotas. Here, some progress is being made but there remains disagreement on what percentage of trade sensitive products this designation should be allowed to cover, with views among negotiators ranging from one to fifteen per cent.
   
  Of much greater long term significance was the announcement at the OECD’s annual ministerial meeting, that the organisation was opening the way for China, India, Indonesia, Brazil and South Africa to join the thirty member group of wealthy developed nations. 
   
  Angel Gurria, a former Finance and Foreign Minister of Mexico, who is the OECD Secretary-General had been campaigning  for the organisation to embrace all the key players in the world economy on the basis that the organisation could become irrelevant as nearly three quarters of global growth is now coming from advanced developing nations.
   
  As a first step, it was agreed that the OECD would invite Russia to join the group, along with Israel, Slovenia, Estonia and Chile. However, it was also agreed that Mr Gurria strengthen co-operation with Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and South Africa ‘through enhanced engagement programs with a view to possible membership’.
   
  What all this suggests is that deals are being struck to enhance the possibility of a WTO round of limited ambition. But what has so far not been said is how countries in the Caribbean and the rest of the ACP are to be convinced.
   
  The WTO Director General has made clear that he belives that if the Doha Round was to fail this would "breaking the commitment for a more development-friendly world trading system" when the round was launched in 2001. 
   
  The emphasis is now on trying to conclude the talks by the end of the year. 
  If this is to be the case, we shall know before August whether a framework agreement containing the formulae and numbers for tariff reduction and cuts in subsidies is possible. 
   
  David Jessop is the Director of the Caribbean Council and can be contacted at [log in to unmask]
  Previous columns can be found at www.caribbean-council.org
  May 18th, 2007
   
   

       
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