-------- Original Message --------
Subject: [localsustuk] IPCC - advance coverage
Date: Mon, 22 Jan 2007 08:26:24 -0000
From: Jamie Saunders <[log in to unmask]>
To: Local Sus Dev maillist <[log in to unmask]>,
<[log in to unmask]>
CC: <[log in to unmask]>, <[log in to unmask]>, "David Haley"
<[log in to unmask]>, "Permaculture Association"
<[log in to unmask]>
*Global warming: the final verdict*
A study by the world's leading experts says global warming will happen
faster and be more devastating than previously thought
*Robin McKie, science editor*
*Sunday January 21, 2007*
*Observer*
Global warming is destined to have a far more destructive and earlier
impact than previously estimated, the most authoritative report yet
produced on climate change will warn next week.
A draft copy of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, obtained by The Observer, shows the frequency
of devastating storms - like the ones that battered Britain last week -
will increase dramatically. Sea levels will rise over the century by
around half a metre; snow will disappear from all but the highest
mountains; deserts will spread; oceans become acidic, leading to the
destruction of coral reefs and atolls; and deadly heatwaves will become
more prevalent.
The impact will be catastrophic, forcing hundreds of millions of people
to flee their devastated homelands, particularly in tropical, low-lying
areas, while creating waves of immigrants whose movements will strain
the economies of even the most affluent countries.
'The really chilling thing about the IPCC report is that it is the work
of several thousand climate experts who have widely differing views
about how greenhouse gases will have their effect. Some think they will
have a major impact, others a lesser role. Each paragraph of this report
was therefore argued over and scrutinised intensely. Only points that
were considered indisputable survived this process. This is a very
conservative document - that's what makes it so scary,' said one senior
UK climate expert.
Climate concerns are likely to dominate international politics next
month. President Bush is to make the issue a part of his state of the
union address on Wednesday while the IPCC report's final version is set
for release on 2 February in a set of global news conferences.
Although the final wording of the report is still being worked on, the
draft indicates that scientists now have their clearest idea so far
about future climate changes, as well as about recent events. It points
out that:
*·* 12 of the past 13 years were the warmest since records began;
*·* ocean temperatures have risen at least three kilometres beneath the
surface;
*·* glaciers, snow cover and permafrost have decreased in both hemispheres;
*·* sea levels are rising at the rate of almost 2mm a year;
*·* cold days, nights and frost have become rarer while hot days, hot
nights and heatwaves have become more frequent.
And the cause is clear, say the authors: 'It is very likely that
[man-made] greenhouse gas increases caused most of the average
temperature increases since the mid-20th century,' says the report.
To date, these changes have caused global temperatures to rise by 0.6C.
The most likely outcome of continuing rises in greenhouses gases will be
to make the planet a further 3C hotter by 2100, although the report
acknowledges that rises of 4.5C to 5C could be experienced. Ice-cap
melting, rises in sea levels, flooding, cyclones and storms will be an
inevitable consequence.
Past assessments by the IPCC have suggested such scenarios are 'likely'
to occur this century. Its latest report, based on sophisticated
computer models and more detailed observations of snow cover loss, sea
level rises and the spread of deserts, is far more robust and confident.
Now the panel writes of changes as 'extremely likely' and 'almost certain'.
And in a specific rebuff to sceptics who still argue natural variation
in the Sun's output is the real cause of climate change, the panel says
mankind's industrial emissions have had five times more effect on the
climate than any fluctuations in solar radiation. We are the masters of
our own destruction, in short.
There is some comfort, however. The panel believes the Gulf Stream will
go on bathing Britain with its warm waters for the next 100 years. Some
researchers have said it could be disrupted by cold waters pouring off
Greenland's melting ice sheets, plunging western Europe into a mini Ice
Age, as depicted in the disaster film The Day After Tomorrow.
The report reflects climate scientists' growing fears that Earth is
nearing the stage when carbon dioxide rises will bring irreversible
change to the planet. 'We are seeing vast sections of Antarctic ice
disappearing at an alarming rate,' said climate expert Chris Rapley, in
a phone call to The Observer from the Antarctic Peninsula last week.
'That means we can expect to see sea levels rise at about a metre a
century from now on - and that will have devastating consequences.'
However, there is still hope, said Peter Cox of Exeter University. 'We
are like alcoholics who have got as far as admitting there is a problem.
It is a start. Now we have got to start drying out - which means
reducing our carbon output.'
Guardian Unlimited © Guardian News and Media Limited 2007
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,1995348,00.html
<http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,1995348,00.html>
BBC -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/portal/climate_change/default.stm
<http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/portal/climate_change/default.stm>
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/
<http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/>
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