The RSS Medical Section Meeting on Pandemic Flu will take place on 23
January from 4p.m. - 6 p.m. (tea from 3.30) in Errol Street London
All section and study group meetings held at the RSS
pre-registration is recommended. You can register by email:
[log in to unmask] or by phone (020) 7638 8998.
Professor Neil Ferguson
Imperial College Faculty of Medicine
The use of mathematical models in preparing for a flu pandemic
Epidemic models are now a key planning tool in both the US and Europe in
planning for an influenza pandemic, though uncertainties about the
biological and epidemiological properties of the next pandemic virus
limit our ability to precisely predict the speed of spread and health
impact of a pandemic. The talk will give an overview of the insights
modelling has given into the feasibility of containing a pandemic at
source, before it has the chance to spread globally. The insights models
give into options for pandemic mitigation - reducing illness and death -
will then be reviewed, focussing on the potential role of antiviral
drugs, vaccines and 'non-pharmaceutical' public health interventions,
such as school closure.
Ben Cooper, PhD
Centre for Infections Health Protection Agency
HPA work in preparation for an influenza pandemic
The Health Protection Agency's work in preparation for an influenza
pandemic includes analyses of historical pandemic data, collection of
survey data to help predict behavioural responses to a pandemic, and
model-based assessments of possible control measures. An overview of
this diverse range of activities will be given, with particular
emphasis on some of the major statistical challenges that will be
posed by a future pandemic.
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