WinBUGS in Health Economic Evaluations
5th and 6th September 2006
This is the first announcement of a new course being run at the
MRC-Biostatistics Unit in Cambridge, UK
The MRC-BSU has been running a popular course in the general use of
Bayesian analysis and MCMC methods. This new course is intended to provide
an introduction to Bayesian analysis and MCMC methods using WinBUGS,
but restricted to cost-effectiveness analysis and typical models used in
health-economic evaluations. The emphasis throughout will be on
practical examples: software and code to carry out all the analyses will
Cambridge is located 25 miles (40km) from Stansted Airport, with regular
direct bus and train links, offering easy access from Europe.
Faculty : Dr David Spiegelhalter and Dr Richard Nixon, MRC Biostatistics
* Bayesian methods: prior distributions, predictions, sensitivity
analysis to alternative priors. Introduction to distributions to be
used: beta, normal, uniform, gamma, log-normal, Poisson.
* WinBUGS: introduction to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), simple use,
distinguish Monte Carlo (prior only, probabilistic sensitivity
analysis), from MCMC (simultaneous data-analysis/evidence-synthesis and
CE analysis). Inference on any functions of parameters. Ranking.
* Cost data - different models, model fit, predictions, inference on
mean, sensitivity to tail-area assumptions.
* Cost-utility data (bivariate posterior distributions,
cost-effectiveness plane, CEACs), illustrated with clinical trial data
* Markov models - setting up in WinBUGS, Monte Carlo as in PSA,
estimating transition probabilities.
* Evidence synthesis - meta-analysis, multiple sources, fit, conflict.
Sensitivity to alternative modeling assumptions.
* Value of information
* Running WinBUGS with R : R2WinBUGS and BRugs
The costs are:
Public sector £240
Dr. Richard Nixon, MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, UK
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