Thanks to Yunus for that! I didn't want to switch people off with too many
Peak Oil facts & figures, but am happy to try to field any queries. I agree
that as supply fails to meet demand, there will be a 'shortage' of oil & one
of my points was to ask who gets the oil & who doesn't?

How much oil is left?
When Yunus said, "New technologies do not produce oil; they merely increase
the rate of the oil well depletion" he was spot on. Unfortunately, the world
market has not cottoned on to this. So long as we continue to live under
'perpetual growth' economics, we're going to face a fall. Maybe academics
should join the call for complete transparency by oil companies on their
reserves. I believe the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) is
calling for this & I can find out more if anyone's interested.

It's impossible to know what we're up against with oil company secrecy.
Yunus may know more here, but in the 1980s all the OPEC countries, starting
with Saudi Arabia, altered the way they reported their reserves because
those with the largest reserves would be permitted to extract more oil. I
believe they switched from reporting 'oil remaining' to 'total reserves'!
Yes, it does sound crazy but I have seen the graphs, all suddenly reporting
higher reserves without obvious new discoveries.

When is Peak?
Yunus also said, "I do not think the world will survive to see oil
production peak", which is a very gloomy prospect for me given that I think
Peak will be before 2010! However, we won't know we've peaked til we're down
the other side (real 20:20 hindsight). But a geologist (M. King Hubbert)
first described oil well depletion in 1956 and despite the ridicule his
theories still receive, he has been proved right, most dramatically by the
US which peaked in 1971(Hubbert predicted 1970).

Remember that the impacts of passing a global peak in oil production will
not be instant. Indeed the shape of the tail of the production curve is
totally dependant on how we utilise the remaining reserves. However, the
impacts of peak oil will be more severe for those who live an oil-dependent
life. And they'll also be more severe for us if we lose the Gulf Stream!
Which is why we need to use less oil now - if not for the sake of the
climate, then for the sake of the remaining reserves.

As I said before, it's not peak oil vs. climate change - they're 2 sides of
the same coin. While the politicians stick their heads in the (oil-bearing)
sand, everyone is capable of seriously reducing their own oil reliance.
Video conferencing is one obvious way to communicate without burning fossil
fuels (although now we need to know how much embedded energy is there in a
video conferencing suite & global satellite communications ...)

Isn't it said that if we used 1/4 (or is it 1/2) of known oil reserves, we'd
push climate change into the irreversible phase? How reliable is this figure
and over what time frame? Peak Oil is based on there being around a trillion
(1,000 billion) barrels of oil left in known reserves, out of a total
original reserve of 2 trillion barrels (we've used half, hence we're at the
peak in the production bell curve).

So if 1/4 of the oil remaining is 250 billion barrels & current global
consumption is around 30 billion barrels per year, we can only continue
using as much oil as we do today for 8 years. This takes no account of
year-on-year growth in consumption, nor of the increasing difficulty in
accessing oil (deeper off shore, pumping in water or CO2 to release more
oil, turning to non-conventional sources which are more energy intensive to
extract, like tar sands & heavy oil).

OK, I really have moved away from the plane/ship debate and into the
doomsday scenario. Sorry! However, I hope it explains the urgent need for
more academic study of peak oil & energy scenarios. I just don't believe
that the oil which we know is still out there has ever been
under-estimated - much more likely to have been over-estimated (look at
Shell!)

I hope this debate will continue ...

MM x

* * * * * * *
Hi Mandy and all,

Actually peak oil is also about the shortage of oil in the coming future.

OPEC and Non-OPEC countries are producing larger volumes of convential crude
then they are finding by a factor of 3. depletion rates are reaching or
exceeding 50%. Sustaining or increasing the production levels would be
challenges. The diminishing exploration success has left us with relatively
little number of undeveloped fields with significant production capacity
especially in non-OPEC countries. The critical question is whether OPEC
countries are capable of providing the magnitude of production capacity
growth that will be required in this decade.

For oil production forecasting, it is best to look at long term trends since
short term forecast are generally not accurate due to lack of data. 50% of
oil supply is from 120 giant oil fields, 50% of them are more then 40 years
old and 95% are over 25 years old. The estimate of remaining reserves is
mostly estimates or guesses. The Middle East is thought to hold 2/3 of the
world reserves but some say it is much less. The 30 year average oil demand
growth is about 2.4%. In terms of production, North sea, the US, Mexico,
Iran and Saudi fields are all on decline with the North sea showing the
largest rate of depletion.  New technologies do not produce oil; they merely
increase the rate of the oil well depletion.

From adjusted to inflation and investment rates, the oil prices of
US$50/barrel is still below long term average. Transport is the main
culprit, i.e. the largest growth sector which uses oil. The average American
spends US$80/month per car in a country with an average income of about
US$35,000/year.

In 2004, the global oil consumption increased to 136 million tons of which
China contributed about 30% (of the growth). The need for 90 million tons
could come from China in 2005/6, By 2020; China would consume 34% of the
world's coal and 14% of its oil and would exceed the USA as the largest
energy consumer in the world (20%). In India, the energy and oil consumption
percapita is steadily increasing and by 2025, India would need 60% of the
current Saudi oil production today.

However, I do not think the world will survive to see oil production peak.

So Mandy, I do share your 'despair' when I see the developing countries
model their development on the West. I personally do not see any solution in
the near future, not in my life time, maybe never. Modern societies are not
build on oil, it is build on greed. It is build on the premise that we are
perpetually in need of a 'better' life. We actually assume that life is
improved with technology. Well, has it?

yunus