Dear Ray,

Thank you for looking over this item, and for passing on your thoughts. We
are always open to new approaches and would welcome a short piece of the
kind you would like to see. If you have the time to draft a few paragraphs
in layman's language and using commonsense logical rather than mathematical
and technical explanations, we would be happy to consider putting it up as
one of the free discussion resources on our site. Unfortunately we are not
able to pay contributors, but we would of course give you full credit, and a
link to your own site.

I look forward to hearing from you,

Stephen Morris
Concept Stew Ltd
http://www.conceptstew.co.uk


-----Original Message-----
From: Ray Thomas [mailto:[log in to unmask]] 
Sent: 29 July 2005 14:45
To: [log in to unmask] AC. UK; Stephen Morris
Subject: Re: New free statistics resource (fwd)

I have looked at the item on risk and have a very basic criticism that may 
well apply to other items.

The major example given about risk is hypothetical.   So the item is not 
about statistics in the broad sense of the word but is about probability and

statistical method.    Nothing  wrong with that in itself and I take it for 
granted that students should know about these matters.

But the danger with this approach is that it detracts from the attention 
that should be given to data and its qualities.  This is evidenced by 
countless statements made by journalists, social scientists, and 
statisticians alike of the kind  'The survey show that the probability of 
....'

In fact the survey shows nothing of the kind.   The survey supports 
empirical statements of the kind 'The survey results indicated that the 
proportion of ...'

There is a world of difference between an empirical finding and a 
probability statement .   To go from one to the other requires a series of 
assumptions that should never be forgotten.

I doubt that general statements about the difference between an empirical 
finding and a probability statement are adequate to deal with this problem. 
I would like to see an approach that started with empirical statements and 
then asked 'What kind of probability statements can defendably be made on 
the basis of this evidence?'.   Such an approach would aim to achieve a 
proper balance between matters relating to the real world and statistical 
method.

Ray Thomas
35 Passmore, Tinkers Bridge, Milton Keynes MK6 3DY
Email: [log in to unmask]
Tel/Fax 01908 679081
************************************


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Stephen Morris" <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Monday, July 25, 2005 1:55 PM
Subject: Re: New free statistics resource (fwd)



You may be interested in the three other items in the series so far:

The first explores the nature of risk, and in particular how to assess
statements in the press of increased or decreased risk:
http://www.conceptstew.co.uk/PAGES/what_is_risk.html

The second looks at conditional probability, using the example of health
testing:
http://www.conceptstew.co.uk/PAGES/false_positives.html

And the third discusses when you should use the median or the mean, using
the example of average household income:
http://www.conceptstew.co.uk/PAGES/mean_or_median.html

Stephen Morris
Director
Concept Stew Ltd
139 Brick Lane
London
E1 6SB

http://www.conceptstew.co.uk


-----Original Message-----
From: email list for Radical Statistics [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On
Behalf Of Professor David Gordon
Sent: 21 July 2005 18:04
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: New free statistics resource (fwd)

Professor Meadows for students (see link)

---------- Forwarded Message ----------
Date: 21 July 2005 17:37 +0100
From: Stephen Morris <[log in to unmask]>
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: New free statistics resource



Dear all,



You may be interested in a new free resource which is now available to
students, teachers and researchers on our website.



Discussion pieces:

We have added a new item to our series of pieces discussing some of the
less intuitive concepts in statistics. Items will be added regularly to the
site, so if there is anything you would particularly like us to cover,
please let us know.



The new item considers pitfalls in the calculation of odds, using the
Professor Meadows case as an illustration.
http://www.conceptstew.co.uk/PAGES/evening_the_odds.html



I hope you find it useful,



Jill Szuscikiewicz

Director

Concept Stew Ltd

139 Brick Lane

London

E1 6SB



http://www.conceptstew.co.uk





---------- End Forwarded Message ----------



----------------------
Dave Gordon
Townsend Centre for International Poverty Research
University of Bristol
8 Priory Road
Bristol BS8 1TZ, UK

E-Mail: [log in to unmask]
Tel: +44-(0)117-954 6761
Fax: +44-(0)117-954 6756

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