JiscMail Logo
Email discussion lists for the UK Education and Research communities

Help for RADSTATS Archives


RADSTATS Archives

RADSTATS Archives


RADSTATS@JISCMAIL.AC.UK


View:

Message:

[

First

|

Previous

|

Next

|

Last

]

By Topic:

[

First

|

Previous

|

Next

|

Last

]

By Author:

[

First

|

Previous

|

Next

|

Last

]

Font:

Proportional Font

LISTSERV Archives

LISTSERV Archives

RADSTATS Home

RADSTATS Home

RADSTATS  2004

RADSTATS 2004

Options

Subscribe or Unsubscribe

Subscribe or Unsubscribe

Log In

Log In

Get Password

Get Password

Subject:

Re: Cluster analysis

From:

Ray Thomas <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Ray Thomas <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 10 Nov 2004 15:20:12 -0000

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (135 lines)

Apologies for a lack of clarity in my message of 9 Nov.   The situations in
Iraq and Chechnya are so parallel that my mind jumped a few stages and my
message did not make clear that the final paragraphs were intended to refer
to the elections promised in Iraq.

This promise of elections has become the justification for the second war in
Iraq.   The second war in Chechnya started in 1999 had a parallel
justification.  But the benefits of the elections held in Chechnya in 2003
have been limited to the provision of statistics.  The elections have not
been fair in any sense,  But the statistics have given evidence on the
extent of vote rigging and, in stimulating the production of population
statistics, that provide useful information  such as that on the number of
refugees (or 'internally displaced persons' as they have become known as)
and information relevant to the number of deaths.

It seems very doubtful that elections will be held in Iraq in January as
promised.  But when and if elections are held in Iraq the most predicatable
benefit is likely to be statistical evidence - just as this seems  to have
been the only benefit in Chechnya.

You can't have elections without statistics on the number of votes that
relate to defined constituencies.   And it will be difficult to produce
credible figures for voting unless there are also statistics for the numbers
entitled to vote.   .The credibility and quality of such statistics would
provide important evidence for assessing  the achievements of the invasion
of Iraq and in particular for assessing the justification for the 'second
war' centred on Falluja.  If there are statistics of the numbers entitled to
vote it is reasonable to expect the the production of  figures for the
numbers of internally displaced persons so that we can get an idea of the
scale of disruption associated with the 'second war'.

Statistical systems are the hallmark of organised societies.   And it is
difficult to imagine that Iraq will be able to display such hallmarks for
January 2005.

Put this another way.   Isn't the promise of elections in January and
indication of a scale of self-deception by Blair and Bush that is even
greater than that leading to the original invasion?

Ray Thomas
35 Passmore, Tinkers Bridge, Milton Keynes MK6 3DY
Email: [log in to unmask]
Tel 01908 679081  Fax 01908 550401
*********************************












----- Original Message -----
From: "Ray Thomas" <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Tuesday, November 09, 2004 9:40 PM
Subject: Re: Cluster analysis


> Does Blair's denial of evidence on the number of Iraqi deaths make him the
> author of the biggest single lie uttered by a Western political leaders?
>
> George Washington, for example, did not attempt to deny that the cherry
> tree
> had been chopped down!
>
> Blair's attempt to belittle statistical evidence on casualties in Iraq
> seems
> to go further in denial than even the Russian Government.
>
> Russian authorities have never made any attempt to keep a record of the
> number of casualties in Chechnya.   Just as the US or the UK have made no
> attempt to keep a record of the number of deaths they have inflicted on
> Iraq.   Belligerent governments feel no responsibilities to the
> populations
> that they claim to be liberating or saving from terrorism.  But there is a
> variation in the response to independent estimates of deaths.
>
> The Memorial Human Rights organisation in Moscow published a survey-based
> estimate for Grozny, capital of Chechnya, for the period Dec 94 to March
> 95
> of 25-29 thousand deaths - excluding military and insurgents.  The Russian
> Government did not query this estimate.  But the head of Demographic
> Statistics asked the Memorial Centre for its data and made its own
> estimate
> of 30-40 thousand.   In the 1990s it appears that Russia was on the way to
> achieving an independent statistical service!
>
> This promise does not appear to have been maintained in the second Chechen
> war that started in 1999.   Government under Putin seems to be combining
> the stupidity of the slogan 'war against terrorism' with the secrecy of
> the
> Soviet KGB era.    But you can get a fair picture of the scale of the
> catastrophic events in Chechnya, and the failure of 'elections' to remedy
> the situation, at http://www.mhg.ru/publications/33D4760.   I can email
> you
> an English version.
>
> Elections would at least bring some statistical evidence.  There would
> have
> to be figures for the numbers entitled to vote and for the number of votes
> cost for different candidates.   If the procedures followed are supported
> by
> international observers we might be able to see elections as having been a
> way forward.
>
> But that is a very big IF!.  The UK Governments current tendencies seem to
> promise more denials and cover-ups that will preclude properly observed
> election procedures and the production of meaningful statistics..
>
> Ray Thomas
> 35 Passmore, Tinkers Bridge, Milton Keynes MK6 3DY
> Email: [log in to unmask]
> Tel 01908 679081  Fax 01908 550401
>
> ******************************************************
> Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your
> message will go only to the sender of this message.
> If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's
> 'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically
> to [log in to unmask]
> *******************************************************

******************************************************
Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your
message will go only to the sender of this message.
If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's
'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically
to [log in to unmask]
*******************************************************

Top of Message | Previous Page | Permalink

JiscMail Tools


RSS Feeds and Sharing


Advanced Options


Archives

March 2024
February 2024
January 2024
December 2023
November 2023
October 2023
September 2023
August 2023
July 2023
June 2023
May 2023
April 2023
March 2023
February 2023
January 2023
December 2022
November 2022
October 2022
September 2022
August 2022
July 2022
June 2022
May 2022
April 2022
March 2022
February 2022
January 2022
December 2021
November 2021
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998


JiscMail is a Jisc service.

View our service policies at https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/policyandsecurity/ and Jisc's privacy policy at https://www.jisc.ac.uk/website/privacy-notice

For help and support help@jisc.ac.uk

Secured by F-Secure Anti-Virus CataList Email List Search Powered by the LISTSERV Email List Manager