The next SWORDS meeting of the 2004-2005 programme is scheduled for Tuesday
the 23rd of November, 2004. The details are:

Title:
An Example of Successful Simulation in Practice: The Bed Capacity
Implications Model

Speakers:
David Bensley and Inderpreet Grewaln - Economics & Operational Research
Division in Department of Health

The meeting will be held at the Mathematics Institute, Cardiff University.
Please contact me at the number below if you would like a map. Tea and
coffee will be available from 5.30pm in the Internet Café which is just
inside the main entrance to the Mathematics Institute. The meeting will
commence at 6.00pm in room M0.40 (ground floor).

Abstract

• Simulation is recognised as a valuable tool in strategic and
tactical planning. To be successful it must be ‘fit for purpose’, easy to
use, and be credible and comprehensible from a policy and managerial
perspective.
• Simulation has been used extensively within the Department of
Health. The presentation will describe one example of successful
simulation, the Bed Capacity Implications Model, which has been flexibly
used for a range of both national and local applications.
• The Bed Capacity Implications Model is a generic model applicable
for medium term rather than day to day planning. It explores the
interactions and trade-offs between bed occupancy, cancellations of
scheduled hospital operations, long waits for admission in Accident and
Emergency Departments and delayed discharges from hospital.
• National and local applications of the model will be discussed.
• At a National level the model has been used to model the
implementation of emergency and elective targets including the implications
of introducing Booked Appointment Systems and the impact for NHS Trusts of
introducing elective treatment centres in the independent sector. Recently
it has been used for modelling the potential impact of military casualties
arising from the conflict in Iraq and the impact of major incidents.
• Locally the model has been made available to the Health Service as
a learning tool for hospitals and health authorities to help with the
understanding of trade-offs and the impact of variability. It has been also
used to investigate the impact of modernisation programmes, for example the
impact of introducing Dedicated Stroke Units and an evaluation of the
consequences of a change programme in Orthopaedics.

Please contact me if you would like a map or further information.

Jonathan Thompson
Tel: 029-20875524
E-mail: [log in to unmask]