THE CAMBRIDGE STATISTICS DISCUSSION GROUP
Wednesday 2nd February 2005 7:15 for 7:45
Large Lecture Theatre,
Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit,
Chaucer Road, Cambridge
A Bayesian analysis of the citrus canker epidemic in urban Miami.
Lara Jamieson,
Department of Plant Sciences University of Cambridge
Abstract:
The study of epidemics within urban environments presents many
complications with regard to consistency within the data. In a
plantation or experimental system there are set uniform distances between
individuals and trees are of the same type, age and general health. The
introduction of the Asian citrus leaf miner is a further complication,
greatly increasing the spread of the canker bacteria.
We present a spatio-temporal framework and a number of feasible models.
Reversible Jump MCMC is then used to determine which dynamic predominates
thus giving insight into the epidemic mechanism and implications to
control measures.
Speaker:
Lara completed a BSc at Auckland University with first class honours in both
Statistics and Mathematics. She then lectured at Massey University before
coming to Cambridge to do a MPhil and then a PhD at the Statistical
Laboratory. Lara is currently a post-doc in the Epidemiology and Modelling
group at the Department of Plant Sciences in Cambridge.
Her research interests lie in applied statistics and more recently Bayesian
methodology and reversible jump. Specific areas of application include
population ecology and epidemiology.
Directions: Chaucer Road is off Trumpington Road - if you are heading
away from the city centre it is the first right after the junction
with Brooklands Avenue. Number 15 is at the end on the left and is a
large Victorian House with a more modern extension to its right.
The entrance is in the porch located in the middle of the older section on
the left as you come in and is accessed by ascending a few steps from the
car park. Cars may be parked there. The outside door will be locked at 7:45.
Arrivals after 7:45 may gain admittance by contacting the secretary on
07761769436.
Next Meetings:
2nd March - Mary Garratt on 'Dead Dutch Cats'.
11th April - Anthony Edwards (Gonville & Caius) on 'Cambridge Statistics from
Venn to Fisher and Beyond'
19th May - Adam Kleczkowski (Plant Sciences).
Supper: Some members eat regularly in the University Centre before
each talk meeting in the downstairs bar at 5-45pm. Feel free to join them.
Subscriptions: of 4 pounds are now due for the 2004-2005 session.
Secretary: Peter Watson, MRC Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit,
15 Chaucer Road, Cambridge CB2 2EF;telephone 01223 355294 Extension 801;
E-mail [log in to unmask]
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