Dear Eric,
Thank you very much! I really appreciate the feedback.
Although I agree with everything you say, I an not incorporating all of
your specific comments because I want this paper to have a focused and
academic tone, and so I'm avoiding most subjective comments.
I have, however, added some new sections, including a discussion of the
differences between growth and development, and a discussion of
counter-arguments and some of the errors made by proponents of automobile
travel growth. The revised version is now on the website
at http://www.vtpi.org/future.pdf.
I also added discussion in the conclusions section about the implications
for developing countries.
Please let me know if you have more comments or suggestions.
Best wishes,
-Todd Litman
At 07:49 PM 12/28/2004 +0100, EcoPlan, Paris wrote:
>Dear Todd,
>
>
>
>Your paper is so very good that whatever I can say I can well put in
>public, not least with the thought that these observations in turn may
>break the ice on this and set off others that may be yet more useful to
>you with their comments and indeed to us all since you have done us a
>great service with this well thought out and supported piece.
>
>
> * New Technology: On p. 18, para 2: I for one would put that a bit
> more strongly. Perhaps with irony? You might possibly wish to tag on the
> drawled English phrase & , to say the least . My point is that I really
> do think that we need to keep this beast in the closet and not leave the
> door even remotely ajar.
>
> * Next para& I think it s a tad early to draw the curtain on Segways.
>
> * Table 2: Title? Better perhaps? Impacts of new transport-related
> technologies (This would permit us to slip in some of the other stuff
> such as ICT through the transom.)
> * Table 2: Under Increases Motorized Travel , possibly add something
> along the lines of Increased vehicle throughput via electronics (Yes, I
> know it pushes over a bit into your second category, but it is a clear
> villain and needs to be called as much. Under Reduces: Mobile telephony
> interfaces with service suppliers
>
> * Para 3, last sentence: I would tend to be prudent here since in my
> view at least technology is always a two edged sword and, wouldn t you
> know? that other edge (the one that no one is looking at) has an awful
> tendency to be very sharp and painful indeed. So I would tend to say
> something along the lines that : Well, technology may promise to bring
> about great improvements, but given their complex impacts it is best that
> planners and policy makers remain highly critical about their overall and
> longer term impacts . (That of course in your sober language which is far
> better than my wording there.)
>
> * Last sentence on that page, comment . . . Of course well deployed
> ITS can do a lot to help you locate that parking space you would so
> desperately like to find.
>
> * Consumer Preferences: On the possibility of a decline of at least
> youth interest in cars, I would ask you to consider and maybe integrate a
> few comments on:
> * Attitudes in the developing countries are still for the most
> part driven by all those good old images.
> * Alternatives to vehicle ownership: carsharing & changes a lot
> for at least certain groups and places, and with just a bit of luck might
> become a major new behavioral norm.. in certain places and groups.
> * One great way to change consumer preferences is for you to be
> stuck in traffic while public and shared transport systems sail by you in
> the HOV lane (and for this to happen, we do need to factor in some pretty
> good new technologies).
>
> * Freight Transport: There are two things there that we need to better
> understand and then master in this important sector. First, the
> importance of full cost pricing.. since the sector is massively protected
> by the close to invisible ramifications of the old mobility mind set and
> operating environment. Second, the negative environmental impacts of
> present arrangements, which need to be better mapped and understood. And
> finally that technology can do a lot to help us cope better with the
> latter but since the price envelope is so skewed there is not sufficient
> pressure on the suppliers and regulators to do a LOT better. Which they
> certainly could.
> * Economic Instruments: You get partial whack at this else, and in
> particular in your good page on Transportation Planning and Investment,
> and again in the bottom of p. 24, but might there not be a good lively
> whole section on this since it provides such a clearly powerful
> instrument of total system rationalization and improvement. For example:
> * Full cost pricing: bringing up things such as road pricing, fuel
> pricing, and yes! the price of sprawl which we could in fact adjust to
> reflect full costs.
> * Discriminatory pricing and subsidies: Really comes close to full
> cost, but might introduce some thoughts on things like free or cheap
> parking prices for poolers, carsharers; various kinds of support for
> those who opt for human powered transport. And maybe a few other things
> * Value capture and land taxes: (I have passed on your invitation
> to our colleagues in the Land Café who know a lot about this and I rather
> think you may be hearing from them.
>
>
> * Who, where and why: Overall, I think it is fair to comment that your
> analysis takes as its starting point for the most part the, let us call
> them, OECD countries where there is a broad overall pattern, albeit with
> a wonderful series of variants and differences. But of course these
> countries at not the whole world, and indeed are in demographic and
> future growth trends overall, almost trivial. (Sorry if I am hurting
> anyone s feelings.) The real action in the sector as far as growth,
> resource, human and environmental impacts will be in those other parts of
> the world where there are some five billion people and high continued
> population growth rates. And these good people are GOING to change.
>
>
>If all that is true, why then is yours an important piece to which we need
>to give closest attention. Because for better or worse (and I often think
>worse) we constitute the leading edge and the patterns that take over here
>are going to be emulated by that other five billion-plus. Which means
>that we need to get actively involved in Making our on future and not just
>letting it happen to us.
>
>
>
>Thanks again so much Todd for this most timely piece. I will now get off
>the stage and let better and wiser voices take over.
>
>
>
>Eric Britton
>
>
>
>PS. I would much like to see if we could organize a free videoconference
>around this theme, but as a group you all seem to be a slightly Luddish
>lot when it comes to being at best only semi-comfortable with these
>technologies (which in fact is the state of the art). Sigh. But it is
>free, there for you to use, and believe me, it works. Check it out at
><http://newmobilitypartners.org/>http://newmobilitypartners.org for
>details and if you are up for it, please get in touch.
>
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Sincerely,
Todd Litman, Director
Victoria Transport Policy Institute
"Efficiency - Equity - Clarity"
1250 Rudlin Street
Victoria, BC, V8V 3R7, Canada
Phone & Fax: 250-360-1560
Email: [log in to unmask]
Website: http://www.vtpi.org
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