Cheers Rob
As well TfL officers I have also copied your e-mail to academics in the
University of Minnesota where I am currently having discussions about
London's congestion charging, our transport policies, their road toll
proposal for single occupancy vehicles to pay to drive in the existing
carpool and transit lane (the HOV, High Occupancy Lane) on the highway,
Interstate 394 (marketed as Interstate 394 MnPASS) and of course, as you
would expect - Land Value Taxation! 

Their State legislators introduced a new property about tax four years ago
and there is now a body of opinion in the community (including some of the
churches, I met one of their representatives yesterday) to change this to
Land Value Tax.

Best of luck with your PhD.
One of my messages from Congestion Charging is that if you charge for a
scarce resource - people use it better.
So charging for scarce central London road space has led to it being used
better.
Similarly, higher fossil fuel prices would lead to less wasteful use and
real investment into sustainable alternatives.
and...... a Land Value Tax (or Location Benefit Charge) would lead to better
(and less wasteful) use of our earth's surface and natural resources.

William Vickry, the late, Nobel prize-winning American economist, was one of
the first to draw attention to the importance of pricing and the benefits of
road-pricing and indeed Land Value Tax which he actively supported.

Dr Rana Roy has published similar work this year for The Railway Forum -
"Not by Spending alone: The Case For A Comprehensive Tax Review" on their
website at http://www.railwayforum.com/publications.php
and Fred Harrison is just about to publish a book (Wheels of Fortune) which
covers the relationship between land, transport and road pricing.

Dave

Dave Wetzel
Vice-chair, Transport for London
Windsor House, 42-50 Victoria Street.
London. SW1H 0TL. UK.
Tel 020 7941 4200
Intl Tel: +44 207 941 4200

Close to New Scotland Yard.
Buses 11, 24, 148 & 211 pass the door. (507 passes close by).
Nearest Underground - St James's Park tube station.
A walk or short bus ride from from Victoria and Waterloo mainline
stations. Public cycle parking available outside Windsor House.


-----Original Message-----
From: Bain, Robert [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
Sent: 07 November 2004 12:53
To: Wetzel Dave
Subject: RE: Traffic Forecasting Accuracy


Thanks Dave,

I have also recently published a credit review of the European toll road
sector and a commentary on the de-risking nature of shadow toll road
transactions, if any of that might be of interest.

Trust this finds you well.

Kindest regards,

Rob

-----Original Message-----
From: Wetzel Dave [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
Sent: Sunday, November 07, 2004 12:50 PM
To: Bain, Robert
Cc: Hendy Peter (TfL); Dix Michèle; Broe Barry; Murray-Clark Malcolm;
[log in to unmask]; [log in to unmask]; 'Steve Elkins
(Minnesota, USA)'; [log in to unmask]; [log in to unmask];
[log in to unmask]; [log in to unmask]; [log in to unmask];
[log in to unmask]; [log in to unmask]; [log in to unmask]
Subject: RE: Traffic Forecasting Accuracy


Cheers Robert
I am forwarding your e-mail to others who may find your work interesting or
may be able to respond to your request for other published work.

Dave

Dave Wetzel
Vice-chair, Transport for London
Windsor House, 42-50 Victoria Street.
London. SW1H 0TL. UK.
Tel 020 7941 4200
Intl Tel: +44 207 941 4200

Close to New Scotland Yard.
Buses 11, 24, 148 & 211 pass the door. (507 passes close by).
Nearest Underground - St James's Park tube station.
A walk or short bus ride from from Victoria and Waterloo mainline
stations. Public cycle parking available outside Windsor House.


-----Original Message-----
From: Robert Bain [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
Sent: 06 November 2004 21:07
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Traffic Forecasting Accuracy


Standard & Poor's has recently published the latest results from our
retrospective on toll road traffic forecasting accuracy.  In our report we
build on and extend our previous analysis and, with assistance from Bent
Flyvbjerg from Aalborg University (Denmark), compare the forecasting
performance for toll roads with that for 'free' (ie. non-tolled) roads.
If anybody would like a copy, email me at [log in to unmask]

Part of this work will contribute to my PhD (at ITS, Leeds).  If anybody
knows of any other published work in this field (analysis of traffic
forecast performance) I would be delighted to hear from you.

Regards,

Rob


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