Johnson's Russia List
#7237
24 June 2003
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#14
Rosbalt
June 23, 2003
How Many Regions Does Russia Need?

It seems that an extensive reorganisation of Russia's regions is imminent.
The reorganisation aims to create a smaller number of regions that will be
much
larger in size. National Autonomous Districts may be abolished, small regions
may be merged into larger ones, and Moscow and St. Petersburg may become
regional centres, losing their status as separate administrative districts.

Recent statements by Federation Council Speaker Sergei Mironov suggest that
the process is already underway. Twice in one week he said that increasing
the
size of the regions would make the state easier to govern. Both times he
added
that 40 would be a suitable number of regions. So far the only concrete plan
announced by Mironov has been merging the Komi-Perm District with the Perm
Region, but the suggestion that 40 is a desirable total indicates that the
changes will be sweeping. The current total of 89 regions will fall by more
than
half, meaning that almost every administrative district will be affected by
the
changes.

Only 24 of the world's countries have a federal structure and of these only
Russia has as many as 89 federal administrative districts. The Russian
Federation is asymmetric (some might say lopsided) as its administrative
districts do
not all have the same legal status. In some of its articles the Russian
Constitution declares equality, but in others it consolidates inequality
between its
regions. The federal administrative districts have been created according to
different principles (some are purely administrative and some are based
around
ethnic groups). Some regions form part of others but are still fully-fledged
federal administrative districts. This situation frequently leads to serious
legal and political conflicts.

The current system makes it difficult to govern. The theoretical equality
between the regions is not born out by life. They are of different sizes,
they
have different populations and different ethnic make-ups, the level of
economic
development varies between them and, most worryingly, income levels also
vary.
Only about 20 regions are either profitable or break even. The rest cannot
get by without federal subsidies.

If everything is left as it is, differences between poor and rich regions
will just grow wider and the federal government will have to go on
transferring
resources from donor regions to poorer recipients forever. This scenario
gives
the latter no incentive to develop their own economic potential, while the
former would like to shed their responsibilities as donors, just as
businessmen
hate paying excessive taxes.
Supporters of reform believe that larger regions will make economic ties
between companies simpler, improve the flow of capital, help the domestic
market
to develop and increase the competitiveness of the regions. They say that
reform will strengthen the federal government, increasing its coordination
and
control functions.

Some supporters of reform are pressing for it to focus on existing economic
blocks: energy, metallurgy, fuel etc. Others see geographical centres of
gravity as the most important factor. These include Moscow, St. Petersburg,
Nizhny
Novgorod, Samara, Rostov, Yekaterinburg, Tyumen, Krasnoyarsk, Irkutsk and so
on.
Proposals being discussed include the desirability of merging the Sakhalin
Region with Kamchatka and the Koryak National District, the Krasnoyarsk
Region
with the Taimyr Autonomous District and the Evenk Autonomous District, the
Altai Region with the Altai Republic, the Novgorod and Pskov Regions, the
Kurgan
and Chelyabinsk Regions, the Chukotka and Magadan Regions, and the Irkutsk
Region with the Ordyn-Buryat Autonomous District. Even more sensitive
proposals
have also been made.

A map of the Russian Empire published in 1916 shows 36 provinces and 11
regions on the territory of modern Russia (although some extend into modern
Kazakhstan and Ukraine). Some of them (for example the Dagestan and Yakutsk
Regions
and the Kazan and Ufa Provinces) roughly correspond to their current
equivalents.
This lends weight to the idea of resurrecting pre-revolutionary provinces
while preserving republics that were formed during the Soviet era within
their
present administrative boundaries. This solution would be the most natural
from
a historical point of view.

Since 1917 the administrative map of Russia/the Russian Soviet Republic has
undergone many changes. On January 14, 1929 the Central Industrial Region,
based around Moscow, was set up. It comprised the Moscow, Tver, Tula and
Ryazan
Provinces. On June 3, 1929 the region was renamed after Moscow and the
provinces
became districts within the Moscow Region. The region took on its current
shape and size after it lost the Kalinin Region (now the Tver Region) in
1935 and
the Tula and Ryazan Regions in 1937.
In 1929 a huge Western Region was also created, only to be broken up later
into the Bryansk, Smolensk and Velikie Luki Regions. The first two continue
to
exist today, but the third has long since been swallowed by the Pskov Region,
which, in turn, was carved out of the Leningrad Region that once included
most
of North-West Russia.

Old maps show such regions as the Azov-Black Sea, Balashov, Grozny, Nizhny
Amur, and Ussuriisk, Regions, and the Murmansk District of the Leningrad
Region.
Between 1940 and 1956 there was also a Karelian-Finnish Republic that was
then demoted to the Karelian Autonomous District. In the 1930s a Jewish
Autonomous District was created on the banks of the Amur River. It still
exists today,
despite a lack of the people for who it was intended.
In the 1980s, in the twilight of Soviet rule, there was talk of creating two
gigantic regions in Siberia instead of the existing ten, with the aim of
making the task of governing it much easier.

Of course, if reform begins, the administrations of regions facing the axe
will actively oppose the project. Yaroslavl Regional Governor Anatoly
Lisitsin
made a lot of enemies when he put forward the idea of merging 'strong and
weak'
regions together (he specifically suggested merging his donor region with the
Kostroma Region). Nobody wants to lose a governorship and lower their own
status. However, 'strong' governors are counting on being appointed or
elected
leaders of the new, more powerful regions. Sverdlovsk Regional Governor
Eduard
Rossel and Saratov Regional Governor Dmitry Ayatskov have confidently
stated in
public that 30-50 regions is enough for Russia.

The leaders of the ten autonomous districts and the Jewish Autonomous Region,
who realise that their fiefdoms are first on the list for abolishment, have
most reason to be worried. Large and wealthy regions like the Yamal-Nenets
and
Khanty-Mansiisk Autonomous Districts are not at all keen to lose their
independence.
Leaders of large ethnic republics, who are rightly concerned that they will
lose many of their privileges during the reform process, are critics of the
idea of increasing the size of the regions. The heads of republics like
Altai,
Khakasia, Karelia and Komi must be thinking about whether they have been
included in a 'second list'.

Critics of the idea of merging regions claim that separatist movements may
become stronger in rich and economically self-reliant regions. Instead of
increasing central control and tapping reserves of economic growth, this
could lead
to the collapse of Russia as a single legal and economic entity.
This can be countered by the argument that after reform the number of
recipient regions will fall sharply and donor regions will have to open
their purse
strings much less often. As for separatism, there are already plenty of bombs
ticking away.

It's no secret that oligarchs already control five of the ten autonomous
districts - naturally those that have the most natural resources and the
highest
level of economic development. As the autonomous regions are first on the
list
to be abolished, their leaders will put up a serious fight. The federal
government will probably try to prevent representatives of big business
from heading
the new regions and at the moment it has both the strength and political will
for this.

The economic and social benefits of reform are currently being emphasised by
its proponents. At a recent meeting with the governors of the Perm Region and
the Komi-Permyak Autonomous District, President Putin said that 'we all know
there have been frequent economic problems caused by this artificial
division:
If you, as leaders, think it necessary to join forces to tackle economic
problems and raise the population's standard of living, then I am ready to
support
you.'

The heads of both houses of parliament support potential reforms. Duma
Speaker Gennady Seleznev believes that the current situation, 'where some
regions
receive up to 90% of their budgets from the federal centre', is ridiculous.
Federation Council Speaker Sergei Mironov has carefully suggested that the
idea
would only be justified if 'the population of a region is prepared to unite
with
another and sees that this will bring an improved standard of living.' He
also believes that it would not be productive to impose reform from above.

The first candidates for reform from regions of equal status could be Moscow
and St. Petersburg and their surrounding regions, although this could cause a
number of problems for their populations and business as well. The
legislative
base for merging the two capitals with their surrounding regions is almost
ready. The 'Presidential package' of laws on reforming regional and municipal
authorities will give Moscow and St. Petersburg full municipal powers, which
will mean that they will be free to shed their status as regions if they
wish.

The Russian Constitution states that a new federal region can be formed from
two or more adjacent regions by merging them together. The regions that wish
to merge have the right to introduce such a proposal. The proposal must
then be
supported by the regions' residents in a referendum before the president can
introduce a bill on the creation of a new region into parliament.

If the bill is passed by both houses of parliament, it becomes a federal
constitutional law (the State Duma must pass the bill by a two-thirds
majority in
three readings and three quarters of the Federation Council's members must
also support it). The required changes must then be made to article 65 of the
Russian Constitution, which lists the regions of the Russian Federation.
Despite the relatively complex nature of the merger process, it is likely
that there will be regions willing to go down this path. A pilot project was
chosen according to the above-mentioned principle of 'helping a neighbour':
incomes in the Komi-Permyak Autonomous District are half those in the
neighbouring
Perm Region.

:It is quite difficult to predict how many regions there will be in Russia in
ten years' time. Nevertheless, it fair to say that radical suggestions that
there will be seven regions mirroring the current federal districts are
unlikely to be proved right. The majority of Russia's regions are already
larger than
major European countries. The figure of 40 named by Sergei Mironov is a much
more likely total.

Anna Goryanina. St. Petersburg
Translated by Robin Jones

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