Johnson's Russia List
#7155
26 April 2003
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A CDI Project
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Rosbalt
April 25, 2003
Russian Society in Critical Condition
For several years it has been a popular joke that the only ministry the
Russian government needs is the Emergency Situations Ministry as the
government is forced to deal with life-saving operations and natural
disasters (as well as 'unnatural' disasters) in all spheres of Russian
life. Unfortunately, there is a great deal of truth in this joke.
According to the Centre of Strategic Research of the Emergency Situations
Ministry, the main threats to Russian security are currently: unreasonable
decisions on what is best for the Russian economy; corruption and
incompetence of the authorities; greater US influence in the world and
their striving for world dominance; lower production capabilities and less
investment.
This was announced by First Deputy Minister Yuri Vorobiev at the conference
Strategic risks of emergency situations: evaluation and prognosis.
Natural and man-made disasters did not even appear in the list of the top
ten threats to Russian security. However, for most people, it is exactly
these kinds of disasters which we associate with 'emergency situations.'
According to Director of the newspaper Managing Risks Rustem Yuldashev, the
main cause of emergency situations in Russia is the poverty of the Russian
government and the population as a whole. Looking at the ministry's list of
security threats, it seems difficult not to agree. As somebody pointed out
at the conference, the average level of accumulated depreciation in Russia
is as much as 80% and this is the main cause of man-made disasters.
According to the ministry's records, there were 1,139 emergency situations
in Russia in 2002, a year-on-year increase of 26%. 343,886 people were
victims of these emergency situations, including 2,151 killed. What is
more, the number of man-made disasters rose by 32%. 3,492 people were
victims of industrial accidents and 1,433 were killed. The number of
natural disasters rose by 20% and there were 336,460 victims, of which 332
people were killed.
The ministry's forecast for 2003 is not good either. The risk of man-made
disasters will continue to grow at the same rate. According to the
ministry, these kinds of disasters are usually caused by tardy and
ineffective repairs to equipment, slow technical re-equipment of dangerous
facilities as well as poor quality control of equipment and pipes and
breaches of fire safety regulations.
According to the Russian Academy of Sciences, most of the latest statistics
on the economic and sociological state of the country show that most areas
of Russian life are in an alarming state. This data has been arranged in
the following way: the first figure shows the critical level; the second
figure shows the actual level; the words in brackets show the implications
of the statistics.
1. Rate at which production level is falling - 30% / 47%
(de-industrialization of the country)
2. Share of advanced technology production in overall production - 15% / 1%
(technological lag)
3. Share of GDP allocated to science and scientific research - 2% / 0.4%
(destruction of scientific potential)
4. Difference in income level between richest and poorest - 10:1 / 20:1
(social crisis)
5. Share of population living below subsistence level - 10% / 30%
(degradation of population)
6. Rate of depopulation - 1.00 / 1.65 (complete depopulation)
7. Life expectancy - 75 / 65.9 (lowering national viability)
8. Average annual consumption of alcohol in liters - 8 / 15.5 (degradation
of population)
9. Level of trust among population for government - 25% / 15% (crisis of
power)
As a result of the current situation, old age now only accounts for 15% of
all deaths in Russia. The other 85% of deaths are premature. What is more,
66% are a result of socio-economic causes (military conflicts, poverty,
starvation, lack of medicines in hospitals, neglected illnesses, late
ambulances etc:), 23% of deaths are caused by pollution, 5.8% of people are
killed in accidents or other disasters, 2.9% commit suicide and 1.5% are
victims of crime.
Oleg Kuzin, Rosbalt, Moscow
Translated by Nick Chesters
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