Dear all,
I have a model with repeated measurements of the numbers of healthy (H),
ill (I) and dead (D) subjects. The number of deaths of ill subjects
id[t] during a period t is modeled by a binomial distribution with
parameters I[t] and some death probability p_ID,t. Also healthy subjects
can die, and the model for the number of of deaths hd[t] is binomial
with parameters H[t] and p_HI,t. The numbers of newly infected people
hi[t] have a similar model. This model induces some restrictions, like
I[t+1] == I[t] - id[t] + hi[t], and H[t+1] == H[t] - hd[t] - hi[t].
I have also missing data, and therefore updating the missing value of
di[t] would also require changing the value of I[t+1] and possibly also
I[t+2] etc. simultaneously.
Can I do this with WinBUGS?
Sincerely,
-tommi
--
Tommi Härkänen
statistician
KTL/TTO (National Public Health Institute)
Mannerheimintie 166
FIN-00300 Helsinki
Finland
E-mail: [log in to unmask]
Tel: +358 9 4744 8719
Fax: +358 9 4744 8924
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