Hello

A BUGS neophyte here...  I'm looking at population census data for
waterbird species compiled from 20 annual aerial surveys across a large
portion of eastern Ausralia.  I'm interested in using WinBUGS to fit a
number of candidate models to annual counts for individual species and
attempt some model comparison and selection.  Then I want to estimate risk
of extinction for each species, or alternatively risk of decline below some
specified population size, by using the selected model(s) as the basis for
non-spatial simulations over a longer time period (e.g. 100 years).  My
first stab at this latter step has been to code the models in R and, for
each replicate simulation, sample the vectors of posterior parameter values
from the CODA output of WinBUGS.  Does this at all sensible ?

Any comments appreciated.  I'd also be interested to hear from anyone using
WinBUGS for similar exercises.

regards
Michael


Michael Bedward
Biodiversity Research & Management Division
NSW National Parks & Wildlife Service
PO Box 1967, Hurstville, NSW 2220
Australia
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ph: 61-(0)2-95856493   fax: 61-(0)2-95856606




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