Johnson's Russia List
#6202
23 April 2002
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A CDI Project
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#5
Moscow Times
April 23, 2002
Voronezh in May 1 Mood
By Boris Kagarlitsky

After the unrest in Voronezh on April 11 the government met to discuss the
impact of its housing reform policy. Potential problems with the program
should have been discussed before it was implemented, of course. But during
the last 10 years government officials have gotten it into their heads that
they have the right to conduct whatever experiments they like on the Russian
people without facing any consequences. Hence they test their reforms on
human subjects.

Voronezh proved the perfect test site, the very model of a regional
administrative center run by local authorities staunchly loyal to the
Kremlin. The former "pro-communist" regional administration was booted out
after Vladimir Putin became president and replaced it with reliable
"centrists." The regional economy is in fairly decent shape. Agriculture is
developing nicely thanks to the area's rich soil, and industry has gotten a
boost from increased demand on the domestic market. In short, a success story
for the new Russia.

It turned out, however, that even in the new Russia pensioners and the poor
can't afford to spend 80 percent of their income on utilities and other
housing expenses. The government didn't bother to create a system of
subsidies for the poor before launching the reforms. What's more, it was
totally unclear how the government could offer such subsidies without
negating the benefits of its own housing reforms. None of this came as much
of a surprise, really. The only thing that the government couldn't foresee
was the ability of its human guinea pigs to revolt.

Not that the revolt was all that terrifying. Regional Communist Party and
trade union bosses gathered a crowd for another run-of-the-mill rally, and
then, unexpectedly, lost control. People started demanding a meeting with the
mayor, clearly planning to give the old boy a sound thrashing. The most
ambitious among them tried to blockade the administration building and got
into a scuffle with the police. But the crowd was made up primarily of
elderly people, and presented no real threat.

It was the very possibility of a revolt in this "model town" that shook up
the leadership in Voronezh and in Moscow as well. The most ominous result of
the rally was the decision to boycott utility and housing payments. This
decision found support not just among the protesters, but among the
population at large.

And the rally shook up more than just the government. The unions and
communists also came out on the losing end. The communists were already under
the gun, and the events in Voronezh really put them between a rock and a hard
place. Previously their rallies didn't worry anyone; in fact, they were seen
as a good way for society to let off a bit of steam. But if the communists
are going to start holding rallies that they can't control, the Kremlin has
every reason to be alarmed. And the Communist Party's leaders live in fear of
the Kremlin's wrath. However, the party can't stop calling people out onto
the streets. May 1 is right around the corner with its ritual parades.

Television news further stoked the flames by showing footage of the strikes
and demonstrations in Italy. The Italians are protesting a new labor code and
the collapse of its social welfare system --both of which Russians swallowed
with scarcely a whimper. There is one mitigating circumstance, however:
Russians have no intention of actually following these new laws or shelling
out any money. They will continue to live their own lives, which neither the
government nor the private sector can do much to change. And the people
always have one ace up their sleeve. They can always go out into the streets
and deck the first uniformed person they see.

The symbolic importance of the unrest in Voronezh was out of all proportion
with what really happened in the streets. But the government's reaction will
only add fuel to the fire. Everyone understands perfectly that when the
authorities immediately start to justify their actions and to mumble vaguely
about compensation, it means that they are unsure of themselves, and that
means they can surely be pushed even further. And if they cave in again, the
people will throw it all back in their faces -- from the Gaidar reforms and
the shelling of parliament in 1993 to Bloody Sunday in 1905 and serfdom.

This year's May Day holiday should be interesting to watch. But the most
interesting spectacle will follow, when it becomes clear once again that a
crowd scuffling with the police can achieve far more in this country than the
whole parliamentary opposition taken together.

Boris Kagarlitsky is a Moscow-based sociologist.

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