Here is a fuller explanation of the query, I am copying this to the
list as someone has queried what I was asking. He was not alone.
Two quotes from the brochure which I have today.
"It has been marked with a random set of numbers for saturday's
lotto draw"
and
"In total we have sent out over 14 million play slips. Everyone of
them has been marked with a selection of numbers. Because there
are only 13,983,816 possible combinations we believe that every
number combination has been issued"
There appears to me to be a minuscule chance that this would
actually cover all the numbers. Though I can not do the maths. My
calculator does not handle the size of numbers required. For
instance I think if they had exactly the number of possibilities the
probability of this is 13,983,816!/(13,983,816)^13,983,816.
I would maintain that you would need over 32 million play slips so
marked to be sent out to be able really claim a reasonable level of
certainty (90%) and infinite for absolute.
Jean M. Russell
From: "steve" <[log in to unmask]>
To: "J.Russell" <[log in to unmask]>,
<[log in to unmask]>
Subject: RE: Camelots latest ploy
Date sent: Mon, 13 May 2002 18:54:49 +0100
> Jean
>
> I doubt the advertising standards people will have any more idea what
> you are on about than I do. What are you whinning about?
>
> Steve
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: A UK-based worldwide e-mail broadcast system mailing list
> [mailto:[log in to unmask]]On Behalf Of J.Russell
> Sent: 13 May 2002 15:46
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: Camelots latest ploy
>
>
> Dear All
>
> This morning I got a lottery card through the post.
>
> I guess it was randomly created.
>
> I am going to assume the numbers quoted on the offer were correct.
>
> They claimed that as they were sending out more cards than would
> be needed to make a list of all possible combinations (i.e. by
> rounding up to nearest thousand ) that they almost certainly will
> have the missing number.
>
> My instinct says this is due to poor statistical thinking and the
> chance might actually less. Do I have a case to report them to the
> advertising standards agency.
>
> Jean
>
> ------------------------------------------------------
> Jean M. Russell M.A. M.Sc. [log in to unmask]
> Corporate Information & Computing Services,
> University of Sheffield
> 285 Glossop Road
> Sheffield
> S10 2HB
> United Kingdom
> Phone: 0114-222-3098
> Fax : 0114-222-3040
>
>
------------------------------------------------------
Jean M. Russell M.A. M.Sc. [log in to unmask]
Corporate Information & Computing Services,
University of Sheffield
285 Glossop Road
Sheffield
S10 2HB
United Kingdom
Phone: 0114-222-3098
Fax : 0114-222-3040
|