And this, Mark, is a nice piece of advice!

:-)

Regards,

Frank Smits
Symphoenix Ltd
Tel: +44 (0)1732 450 495
Mobile: +44 (0)7715 423 150
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-----Original Message-----
From: Complexity and chaos theories applied to primary medical and
social care [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of
Mark Strathern
Sent: 19 September 2002 13:48
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: Strategy and Complexity

Sometimes it is useful to go back to the sources to understand a
subject,
imho, this is true of strategy. We get the idea of strategy from the
military, and there is nothing so complex and unpredictable as battle!
The
classic on strategy, etc., in war is Clausewitz's 'On War' (Vom Kriege).
I
would recommend Bk i: ch vi-viii (pp 162-167), Bk ii: ch iii-vi (pp
201-238), all of Bk iii but chapter i (pp.241-252)in particular. The
page
numbers refer to my copy of the Penguin Classics edition.

As to the example of the hero there is an exact parallel with
Clausewitz's
masterly analysis of Napolean's disasterous Russian campaign of
1812-1813
in Bk ii: Ch v (pp. 225-)

My own take on this subject is that how much of strategy can be laid out
in advance depends on what might be called the 'foresight horizon'. Up
to
the foresight horizon it is possible to plan, beyond it one can only
prepare at best. I tell students that it's a bit like taking an exam. If
you plan in detail what the questions are going to be and then revise
accordingly you will fail because the examiners are most unlikely to ask
those exact questions. However the topics that are going to be examined
are known, there are previous exam papers that can indicate the style of
question, etc. So we can prepare for the examination.

So for me the lesson of complexity when it comes to strategy is plan for
what you know will happen, prepare for what think might happen and scan
the horizon for the innevitable surprises!

Mark Strathern
Complex Systems Management Centre
Cranfield School of Management
Cranfield
Beds
MK43 0AL
U.K.
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