Allstaters
I have the following situation.
Out of a total population of approx 4 million people I have a small sub-population (<1000 new cases pa) that contract a particular disease. These people are treated using a variety of drugs, the selection of which depends on the individual doctor, stage of illness of the patient, age of patient etc.
The question(s) I am trying to address is what size will the population be next year (x% die/cured and y% contract disease) and what will be the demand for the particular drugs. Essentially its a "stock" problem to try to identify how much stock of each drug will be required.
I have been looking up papers on AIDS, Tuberculosis, Hepatitis etc that might address these kinds of problems on a national level but am not having much success, any suggestions would be appreciated as I know there are many medical statisticians/biostatisticians on the mailing list.
Cheers
Kieran
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