THE CAMBRIDGE STATISTICS DISCUSSION GROUP
Wednesday 27th November 2002 7:15 for 7:45
Statistical Laboratory,
Centre for Mathematical Sciences,
Wilberforce Road
Cambridge
Bristol, Shipman and in-vitro fertilisation clinics: how can we spot
the odd one out?"
David Spiegelhalter,
M.R.C. Biostatistics Unit,
Cambridge
Abstract:
Recent high-profile cases have focused attention on the problems of
prospective monitoring of health outcomes, while the debate about
performance indicators and `league tables' looks set to continue for a
long time.
If we are mainly interested in early detection of `sore thumbs',
statistical methods with a background in quality control can be adapted
to the clinical context. In this talk we shall see what would have
happened, for example, had risk-adjusted sequential probability ratio
tests been prospectively applied in the contexts of Bristol and Shipman.
However, more subtle methods are required if we are seriously interested
in ranking the bulk of institutions, and these will be illustrated with
5-year performance of IVF clinics.
Speaker:
David Spiegelhalter has worked at the MRC Biostatistics Unit in Cambridge
for over 20 years, much of that time being spent in developing and
applying Bayesian methods in health care. His current interests include
complex Bayesian modelling using MCMC, model criticism, and the analysis
of performance indicators in the NHS. He was one of lead statistical
witnesses in the Bristol Royal Infirmary Inquiry, and has advised the
solicitors representing the families of Shipman's victims.
Directions:
The main entrance is reached from Clarkson Road by going along the
footpath to the right of the Newton Institute, and turning left through the
gatehouse towards the main building (Pavilion A), which has a glass front and
a curved grassed roof. The main entrance is in the middle of the glass
front. Coffee before the talk will be in the common room in Pavilion D,
and the talk will be in Meeting Room 5 in Pavilion A. Free Parking is
available after 5pm on Clarkson and Wilberforce Roads.
Provisional Next Meetings:
3rd February - Christine Fletcher (AMGEN) on 'Challenges Faced In The
Pharmaceutical Industry: A Biostatistics Perspective'.
4th March - Tim Sparks (Centre for Ecology & Hydrology) on
'The Influence of a Warming Climate on the Phenology of Plants and Animals'.
7th May - Peter Wadhams (Scott Polar) on 'Statistical Properties of Sea
Ice Thickness - is the Arctic Ice Disappearing?'.
Supper: Some members eat regularly in the University Centre before
each talk meeting in the downstairs bar at 6pm. Feel free to join them.
Subscriptions: of 4 pounds per member are now due for the 2002-2003 session.
Cheques should be made payable to Margaret Ely and may be posted
to the secretary at the address below.
Secretary: Peter Watson, MRC Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit,
15 Chaucer Road, Cambridge CB2 2EF;telephone 01223 355294 Extension 801;
E-mail [log in to unmask]
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