Johnson's Russia List
#5078
7 February 2001
[log in to unmask]
#12
space.com
February 5, 2001
Russians Continue to Debate Saving Mir
By Yuri Karash
Moscow Contributing Correspondent, SPACE.com
MOSCOW -- Public debate within Russia over the technical and political
consequences of ending space station Mir's life in orbit is getting more
intense as the date for that event draws nearer with each passing day.
Mir's planned demise in early March is generating so much interest that one
of Russia's prime television stations, ORT, recently convened a panel of
Russian space experts to discuss whether the 15-year-old outpost should be
dumped into the Pacific Ocean or saved in orbit for future generations.
Georgy Grechko, a veteran cosmonaut, said he believes the station should be
stripped of all equipment that still could be used in other spacecraft,
particularly the International Space Station (ISS).
However, Konstantin Feoktistov, a crewmember of the first multi-seat
spacecraft Voskhod launched into orbit in 1964, disagreed.
"The cost of delivery of such equipment to Earth or to another spacecraft
will considerably exceed the cost of this equipment," he said.
Anatoly Artsebarsky, who flew aboard Mir in 1991, believes that after Mir is
deorbited, "all Russian activity within the International Space Station
program framework, will be boiled down to supplying the Americans with the
necessary materials, by flying Progress and Soyuz spacecraft to ISS."
Artsebarsky's opinion is shared by Gennady Malyshev, a professor at the
Moscow Aviation Institute (MAI). According to Malyshev, "ISS is the highest
point of U.S. program of world dominance."
Malyshev believes the Progress M1-5 that is currently docked to Mir must be
used to raise the station's orbit to the altitude where Mir could safely stay
for another half year. During this period of time, he suggests, the outpost
could be equipped with ion engines that could enable it to operate in orbit
for a number of years.
Such proposals were rebuffed by other Russian space engineers and officials
who are not inclined to conduct any experiments with the extension of Mir's
life in orbit.
"Salyut 7's orbit was raised to 286 miles (460 kilometers) altitude where the
station was supposed to fly for a period between eight and 20 years," said
Nikolai Anfimov, director of Russian Central Scientific-Research Institute
for Machine Building (TsNIIMash). "It fell on Earth, however, in four years.
If you use Progress M1-5 for the rise of Mir's orbit, it will lift it only by
37 miles (60 kilometers), which is certainly not enough to be considered as a
long-term solution for the problem."
According to Anfimov, if Mir is left uncontrolled, it may fall anywhere on
Earth between 52 degrees North latitude and 52 degrees South latitude,
exposing 85 percent of the world population to the risk of being hurt by any
of the station's fragments that survive re-entry. Cities such as Paris,
London or Tokyo could be at risk.
Talking about the need to assure Mir's safe deorbiting, Yuri Koptev,
Rosaviakosmos General Director, brought up a historical example: in the late
1970s, a Russian nuclear-powered satellite fell on Canadian territory. The
Soviet Union had to pay Canada $6.5 million.
"This was a very low fee for the damage [caused by the Russian satellite],"
admitted Koptev. "Probability that Mir will hurt somebody or something during
uncontrolled deorbiting amounts up to 28 percent, 1.7 percent of which is
that it may fall on U.S. territory. This is a very high percentage," said
Koptev.
According to a veteran-cosmonaut Vladimir Solovyov, a flight director at the
Mission Control Center in Korolev, beginning from last summer Mir --
particularly its base module -- has developed some irreversible malfunctions.
"Thermal control system which consists of enormous amount of pipelines that
are welded to the body of the station, is losing its leaktightness," said
Solvyov. "Such leaktightness could probably be restored, although 80 percent
of the station's surface cannot be reached for examination and repair work,
since it is covered by instruments and panels. To remove all this equipment
from the places and parts which need to be accessed for service, will cost a
lot."
Leaks in the thermal control system is not the worst surprise, however. The
station began responding to so called non-authorized commands which are the
product of glitches in Mir's control system. "Simply speaking, the station's
main engine could be suddenly ignited and Mir will fly anywhere it wants,"
explained Solvyov.
Mir is currently rotating at 0.18° per second around its axis. Such slow
rotation enables the station to expose all its solar panels to sun in order
to avoid power glitches similar to those which the outpost experienced last
December. If for some reason the angular speed of rotation will exceed 1
degree per second, the "emergency crew" won't be able to dock to Mir.
The station daily is losing from 656 feet to a half-mile (200 to 800 meters)
altitude, depending on the condition of Earth's atmosphere.
The outpost's currently calculated orbital life (with a 15 percent error
margin), will last through March 26, plus or minus seven days. Mir should
reach 155 miles (250 kilometers) altitude on March 8, plus or minus 5 days.
That height is a critical altitude for docking of the "emergency crew" with
the station. It still may fly to Mir in case of a major malfunction even
providing that it will have to rely only on food and water supplies in Soyuz
spacecraft. But when the outpost plunges below 155 miles (250 kilometers), no
manned spacecraft will be able to dock to the station without posing risk to
its crew.
Popular Support for Mir Remains
Although 67 percent of people from 98 nations responding to an online poll by
ORT want Mir to stay in orbit, Russian space officials say they cannot
justify honoring the sentiment.
"You can't rely on such polls while making a very responsible decision on the
station's fate," said Koptev. "People approach this matter mostly in
emotional terms. They are sorry to see the outpost gone. As space
professionals so are we. But we have to base our decisions on calculations,
not emotions and we have to think about safety of people on Earth."
Yuri Semenov, RKK Energia General Designer, made it clear that after Mir
celebrates its 15th anniversary in orbit at the end of February, the main
reason for the extension of the station's life, which was to see whether ISS
could operate in space for 15 years, would be over.
Koptev, praised international cooperation in Mir and ISS programs. Mir's
overall cost, according to Koptev, summed up to $4.3 billion (including its
development, assembly and orbital operation).
"Overall, more than $1 billion of foreign money was invested in Mir's
operation due to international programs from 1994 through 2000, which is
45-47 percent of what was spent on Mir's operation during this period of
time," said Koptev.
Russia's participation in ISS program will give a boost to the Russian space
industry. "To keep Mir on orbit we had to do only four or five launches a
year, which cost us 1.5 billion rubles," said Koptev. "This year we will have
to do eight or nine launches to ISS, which will cost us 3 billion rubles. It
means that we will have to increase our activity in outer space by 1.5 - 2
times."
According to Koptev, Tito's flight is an unfortunate situation, however.
Rosaviakosmos General Director made it clear that Russia had to sell him a
"space tourist" seat in Soyuz for purely financial reasons.
******
|
