At the risk of straying off-topic, list members may be interested in this
entertaining article on environmental doomsdaying:
http://www.reasonmag.com/0005/fe.rb.earth.html
A few points jump out. First, how most of the great scares are led by
scientists of one kind or another, such as the repulsive "biologist" Paul
Ehrlich, who charmingly predicted that 4 billion people (including 65
million Americans) would die in the 1980s, due to what he termed the "great
die-off".
Second, how pessimists usually tell better stories than optimists - though
Greg Easterbrook did a fairly good job of popularising environmental
optimism in A Moment in Time:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/0140154515/qid=958590468/sr=1-3/026
-2710989-6367615 Easterbrook's environmental optimism is based on the
Kuznet's Curve, which posits that environmental indicators worsen for a time
as an economy develops, but then reach a turning point and then improve
consistently with development. Development, in other words, tends to be
environmentally sustainable.
One good story - with the optimist winning - involves a bet the economist
Julian Simon made with Ehlrich. Simon argued that resources would not run
out (again based on the sustainability of growth) and bet Ehlrich that the
price of 5 natural resources (picked by Ehlrich) would fall between 1980 and
1990. They did - even when unadjusted for inflation. The story of
Ehlrich's fury (he really seems to want us all to die) is told in another
most enjoyable article: http://www.carnell.com/population/simon_bet.html
Finally, it is interesting to note how an environmental optimist like
Easterbrook performs when he addresses the relation between science and
religion, in this 1997 article for Science magazine:
http://www.aaas.org/spp/dspp/dbsr/RESOURCE/WARMING.HTM
This article has interesting parallels with tonight's dull-as-ditchwater
Reith Lecture, but has the generosity of a progressive. If you missed
Charles, read the lecture at:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/events/reith_2000/lecture6.stm
David
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David Steven
River Path Associates
http://www.riverpath.com
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