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NATURAL-HAZARDS-DISASTERS  2000

NATURAL-HAZARDS-DISASTERS 2000

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Subject:

Re: counting can be misleading (fwd)

From:

"Cristina I. Rosales" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

[log in to unmask]

Date:

Wed, 7 Jun 2000 17:37:04 +0500 (GMT)

Content-Type:

TEXT/PLAIN

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

TEXT/PLAIN (259 lines)


On Wed, 7 Jun 2000, Cristina I. Rosales wrote:

> 
> Hello,
> 
> Months ago at Natural Hazard Disaster list you were discussing disaster
> data bases;  "small" disaster; and also economic disaster losses. Let us
> share with your our experience with DesInventar, a methodology and
> software to build disaster data bases applied in Latin America, developed
> by the Network for Social Studies in Disaster Prevention in Latin America
> - LA RED.
> 
> First, it is important to clarify that DesInventar methodology is
> interesting in "socio-natural" and technological disasters, understood as
> the adverse effects on lifes, goods and infrastructure (different to the
> events or natural phenomena by themselves).  In this way, both a landslide
> in the Andes causing the destruction of 2 houses without deaths, and also
> a frost of 2 months duration causing agriculture losses, are considered in
> DesInventar methodology. 
> 
> DesInventar has been applied approximately in 14 countries in Latin
> America using several types of information sources. We can divide these in
> two: the first one data from hemerographic sources, and the second one,
> information produced and processed for government disaster assistance
> entities.
> 
> We found out that hemerographic data is a valid and very useful source to
> build the disaster occurrence history for countries and regions. They
> have biasses and deficits in time, space and also in type of events
> reported, depending on type an newspaper coberture. In seven countries in
> Latin America LA RED has built disaster data bases with these sources and
> the analysis show that "small" and "medium" disaster are approximately the
> triple of "big" disasters. 
> 
> But, also the very detailed databases shows that to classify disaster in
> "small", "medium" and "big" depends on the type of damage or effects you
> want to analyse. Depending on deaths the "small" and "medium" disasters
> for a certain study period are the double of big disasters.
> 
> After 1995 six government entities began to apply DesInventar to build
> databases with their own information. The Civil Protection National System
> SINAPROC of Panama has been using DesInventar daily and systematically for
> the past four years, having now 1,200 disaster reports (in DesInventar
> data base), including every "small" disasters that occured throughout the
> whole country.
> 
> At DesInventarīs site (www.desinventar.org) you will find the databases
> from some countries of Latin America, the methodology, and also the querie
> module software DesConsultar. The website is available in both English and
> Spanish.
> 
> Best regards, Cristina.
> 
> Cristina Isabel Rosales Climent
> *****************************************************
> Observatorio Sismologico del SurOccidente - OSSO
> Universidad del Valle, Torre de Ingenierias, 3er Piso
> TEL: +(57-2) 3301661 FAX: +(57-2) 3313418
> AA: 25360
> email alterno: [log in to unmask]
> http://osso.univalle.edu.co
> http://www.desinventar.org
> http://www.lared.org.pe
> Santiago de Cali - Colombia.
> 
> > ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> > Date: Tue, 07 Dec 1999 18:22:47 +0000
> > From: "J.M.Albala-Bertrand" <[log in to unmask]>
> > Reply-To: [log in to unmask]
> > To: [log in to unmask]
> > Subject: Re: counting can be misleading
> > 
> > 
> > At the higher end, I do agree that counting might be misleading, not least
> > because, especially in developing countries, the overestimation of direct
> > effects (deaths, injuries, destruction and direct damage) is overwhelming.
> > This responds to both politically/economically  motivated "estimates" and
> > unreliable technical estimates, which reinforce each other. At the lower
> > end, I agree that to start defining a disaster by any minimum number (e.g.
> > 10 or 100 deaths), even if it is a composed number (i.e.a weighted average
> > of minimum deaths plus minimum losses plus etc), it is fraught with danger.
> > A bus accident that kills 15 passengers can then be called a disaster.
> > 
> > A disaster definition makes sense only societally. A good start is the one
> > you mentioned: "outside the ability of the local population to cope". Or
> > more complete:  "a (social) disaster situation requires four conditions to
> > be characterised as such: (i) a negative state (disaster impact), (ii) a
> > state that overtakes normal (societal) responses (incapacity to cope with
> > internal [endogenous and exogenous] reponses), (iii) the need for an extra
> > response (external [exogenous and endogenous] responses), and (iv) the
> > three previous conditions must affect NORMAL societal processes
> > significantly (societal interference)" (Adapted from Albala-Bertrand, J.M.
> > "What is a 'Complex Humanitarian Emergency'? An Analytical Essay (1999)
> > unpublished).
> > 
> > 
> > But then how do you know that the community cannot cope? Here again
> > politically and economically vested interests can be involved, unless the
> > disaster is so huge that there is no room for doubt. Also, the "capacity to
> > cope" cannot be confined to the direct affected population, but to the
> > local, regional or country administration, including even international
> > levels. Then, you may have that what appears to be  a "disaster" for a
> > confined community (i.e. cannot cope by itself), it is not for the region,
> > and so on. So administrative levels and formal and informal, internal and
> > external, exogenous and endogenous, response mechanisms should be taken
> > into account. For useful classifications and conceptualisation, I suggest
> > that you have a look at my book:
> > 
> > Albala-Bertrand, J.M. (1993) The Political Economy of Large Natural
> > Disasters (Clarendon, Oxford).
> > 
> > Best regards
> > 
> > J.M. Albala-Bertrand
> > 
> > At 04:49 PM 12/7/99 -0000, you wrote:
> > >Am I right in thinking that La Red's DISINVENTAR database classifies a
> > >disaster as more than ten deaths? This makes of course for enormous data
> > >collection, and does not address damage to livelihoods (the perpetuator of
> > >poverty for most disasters affecting poor people). But it does make size
> > >less of an issue - just about everything gets included.
> > >
> > >Counting is not conducive to good definitions (are 9 deaths not a
> > >disaster?), but can be useful in describing magnitude and determining
> > >response. The UN definition has, I think, got it right: 'outside the ability
> > >of the local population to cope'. this is neat, and allows for the specifics
> > >of regional significance.
> > >
> > >David Sanderson
> > >
> > >Technical and Policy Advisor
> > >CARE International UK
> > >Tower House 8-14 Southampton Street London WC2E 7HA London
> > >
> > >Tel 44 171 379 5247; Fax 44 171 379 0543
> > >E mail [log in to unmask]
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >-----Original Message-----
> > >From: David L. Butler [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
> > >Sent: 07 December 1999 08:29
> > >To: [log in to unmask]
> > >Cc: Nick Hall; [log in to unmask]; Mary Fran Myers
> > >Subject: Re: The Most .... Disasters of the 20TH Century -Reply
> > >
> > >
> > >Dear Nick, Mike, et al.
> > >
> > >Nick's point about the significance of smaller disasters is well taken.
> > >
> > >At the beginning of the IDNDR, Ken Mitchell of Rutgers University wrote a
> > >paper that we (Natural Hazards Center, University of Colorado) published
> > >as our IDNDR Report #2. Entitled "Where Might the International Decade for
> > >Natural Disaster Reduction Concentrate Its Activities: A Comparative
> > >Analysis of Disaster Data Sets," the paper examines many of the problems
> > >already brought up by members of this list. Among its many conclusions, it
> > >states that existing data sets seriously underestimate natural disaster
> > >death tolls and that *small scale disaster death tolls are often not
> > >reported . . . even though in aggregate they may account for more than
> > >half of all disaster deaths*. Mitchell then suggests implications of
> > >these findings for the development of programs (at that time the IDNDR,
> > >but the suggestions are equally relevant today) to ameliorate disasters. 
> > >
> > >Disaster data are notoriously difficult to determine and compare. And,
> > >as Nick Hall and Ken Mitchell imply, because they focus on large-scale
> > >events, they may lead governments, agencies, and organizations to not 
> > >focus on or develop programs that could be most beneficial (i.e., programs
> > >that address smaller-scale, but more frequent, events).
> > >
> > >Happy Holidays,
> > >David Butler
> > >
> > >Natural Hazards Information Center
> > >University of Colorado
> > >WWW: http://www.colorado.edu/hazards
> > >
> > >p.s. Mike, you might browse our on-line library database at the URL above
> > >and/or contact our librarian at (303) 492-5787. 
> > >
> > >
> > >On Tue, 7 Dec 1999, Nick Hall wrote:
> > >
> > >> Dear All,
> > >> 
> > >> There have been some spectacularly calamatous events this century, no 
> > >> doubt.   I would also be interested to see a compilation of data 
> > >> about the aggregated impacts of many more smaller disasters.  I 
> > >> suppose that a great many more people have suffered (and economic 
> > >> losses have arisen) through the very many 'small' disasters. For 
> > >> example, a single landslide affecting one village in the Andes, or 
> > >> flash floods that destroy crops or a local irrigation system - these 
> > >> go virtually unnoticed and mostly aren't even recorded on the 
> > >> big databases (eg at CRED), but add all these small disasters up and 
> > >> the impact far exceeds these high profile events.   
> > >> 
> > >> Is such a database of local disasters available at some central 
> > >> place?   
> > >> Dr. NICK HALL, 
> > >> Senior Research Fellow, South Bank University, Wandsworth Road, London SW8
> > >2JZ,   U.K.
> > >> tel: +44-171 815 7283; fax: 815 7366; e-mail: <[log in to unmask]> 
> > >> 
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > 
> > 
> > 
> >  
> >     *      J.M. Albala-Bertrand                       *
> >     *      Department of Economics            *
> >     *      Queen Mary & Westfield Colleg    *
> >     *      University of London                       *
> >     *      Mile End Road                                  *
> >     *      London E1 4NS                                *
> >     *                                                                   *
> >      Tel    +44 20 7882 5094                          *
> >      Fax  +44 20 8983 3580                           *
> >     Tel Secretary: +44 20 7882 5095
> >     
> > 
> > 
> 
> Cristina Isabel Rosales Climent
> *****************************************************
> Observatorio Sismologico del SurOccidente - OSSO
> Universidad del Valle, Torre de Ingenierias, 3er Piso
> TEL: +(57-2) 3301661 FAX: +(57-2) 3313418
> AA: 25360
> email alterno: [log in to unmask]
> http://osso.univalle.edu.co
> http://www.desinventar.org
> Santiago de Cali - Colombia.
> 
> 
> 
> 

Cristina Isabel Rosales Climent
*****************************************************
Observatorio Sismologico del SurOccidente - OSSO
Universidad del Valle, Torre de Ingenierias, 3er Piso
TEL: +(57-2) 3301661 FAX: +(57-2) 3313418
AA: 25360
email alterno: [log in to unmask]
http://osso.univalle.edu.co
http://www.desinventar.org
Santiago de Cali - Colombia.





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