Jeremy,
This is a subject I should know more about than I do as I used to
work for Willard Libby who discovered the existance of C14. It was
thought to be useless knowledge until archaeologists found a use for
this dating system. This is the first I've heard of Bayes' theorem,
but then I was never into theory and statistical reading!
Thanks anyway.
Bea
On 1/13/2000 6:01 AM Jeremy Oetgen writes:
>
>
>Bea
>
>Now you've put me on the spot...
>
>Err... Well, usually radiocarbon determinations give a range of possible
>dates. The most probable date is arrived at by statistical processes that
>allow for previous knowledge (expectations?). One of the techniques
>employed is called Bayes's theorem, after the mathematician Thomas Bayes
>(1702-61).
>
>Much more authoritative explanations are available from Websites such as
>BCal (an on-line Bayesian radiocarbon calibration tool), at
>http://bcal.cf.ac.uk/home.html
>
>For more on Bayesian theory and the man himself look up the International
>Society for Bayesian Analysis, at http://www.bayesian.org/
>
>I wonder: are there any dating specialists at this conference? May I have
>a show of hands please?
>
>Jeremy
>
>At 17:31 12/01/2000 -0500, Bea Hopkinson wrote:
>>Jeremy,
>> Could you please elaborate on your comment below. Thanks. Bea
>>
>>
>>On 1/12/2000 6:45 AM Jeremy Oetgen writes:
>>
>>>even with C14 dates there's this Bayesian thing they do with the data
>>>where they make it fit the digger's expectations!
>>>
>>>Jeremy
>>
>>
>>Beatrice Hopkinson 73071,327@compuserve
>>
>>
>___________________________________________________
>
>Jeremy Oetgen
>
>British and Irish Archaeological Bibliography
>
>New address: c/o The British Academy, 10 Carlton House Terrace, London
>SW1Y 5AH, England.
>Tel: +(44)(0)171 969 5444 [or (0)20 7969 5444]
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>Internet: http://www.britarch.ac.uk/biab/index.html
>___________________________________________________
Beatrice Hopkinson 73071,327@compuserve
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