From: alert [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
Sent: Thursday, December 07, 2000 3:12 AM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Today's Global Intelligence Update
___________________________________________________________________
S T R A T F O R . c o m
THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
http://www.stratfor.com
___________________________________________________________________
7 December 2000
THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
-> FREE TODAY IN THIS NEWSLETTER AND ON OUR WEBSITE:
* Pakistan Improves Nuclear Command and Control System
http://stratfor.com/home/giu/DAILY.asp
=========================================================
Pakistan Improves Nuclear Command
and Control System
07 December 2000
Summary
Pakistan's National Command Authority held its second
meeting Nov. 27, during
which Islamabad decided to consolidate its nuclear weapons
management under the
control of Gen. Pervez Musharraf. The decision deters
military adventurism by
Pakistan's archrival, India. The consolidation also puts
Musharraf in a position of
strength in terms of international bargaining and fighting
off his enemies within
Pakistan.
Analysis
Pakistan's National Command Authority held its second
meeting in Rawalpindi Nov.
27 at the Strategic Plans Division, The Nation reported.
Pakistan's Chief Executive
Gen. Pervez Musharraf, who leads the NCA, chaired the
meeting. During this last
session, the NCA made decisions to consolidate its nuclear
weapons management
system.
Musharraf is reforming Pakistan's nuclear sector and command
system as a strategic
deterrent to India. He wants to consolidate his power in the
country, which is driven by
different and antagonistic forces. Musharraf needs the added
strength in order to
negotiate with the international community - and within his
own country.
The NCA was established in February 2000 to create command
and control
mechanisms for Pakistan's nuclear weapons and missile
systems. It is responsible for
policy formulation, employment and development control over
all strategic nuclear
forces and strategic organizations. Besides Musharraf, the
NCA includes foreign
affairs, defense and interior ministers, chiefs of all
military services and heads of
strategic organizations.
After the meeting, the Pakistani government released a
statement saying, "The
meeting reviewed the strategic and security environment
facing Pakistan and took
important decisions on nuclear policy matters that included,
amongst others, strategic
threat perception, restructuring of the strategic
organizations and export control
mechanisms," according to the Nov. 28 Times of India.
Pakistan has no intention of abandoning its nuclear program,
at least in the near
future; when a country enhances its nuclear weapons command
and control system, it
generally reveals the opposite. For Islamabad, nuclear
weapons provide a final trump
card in a possible conflict with its much bigger rival,
India.
India has Pakistan out-manned and outgunned, both overall
and in conventional forces
and arms. There are approximately 980,000 active Indian
troops and another 800,000
in reserve. In comparison, Pakistan has an estimated 562,000
active soldiers and
500,000 reservists. India boasts 3,600 tanks to Pakistan's
2,200, and the Indian air
force maintains 890 fighting aircraft as compared to
Pakistan's 620.
Pakistan has worked hard to gain the advantage in number of
conventional arms. Once
Pakistan achieves some success, India once again upsets
Pakistan's hard-earned
advantage. For example, this year has witnessed the
beginning of production of
Pakistan's new major battle tank, Al-Khalid. This 46 tonne,
three-man tank was built
with Chinese help and has a maximum speed of 40 mph. With a
cruising range of 250
miles, it is indeed superior to India's Arjun tank. But
India signed a $3 billion package
with Russia last month, and New Delhi is building and will
receive 310 of Russia's
newest major battle tanks, the T-90s, which beat Al-Khalid
in every parameter. The
same is true of combat aircraft and naval ships.
Pakistan maintains a first-strike option in its nuclear
doctrine. With India outgunning
Pakistan's conventional forces at every turn, the accepted
use of nuclear weapons in
response to a conventional attack sends a message to New
Delhi that, despite its
larger military, Pakistan is not incapable of defending
itself.
Pakistan also had a nuclear advantage because its chief of
the army staff had been in
charge of nuclear planning and deployment, even when there
was a civilian head of
government. Last month, India hoped to catch up with
Pakistan on the issue of nuclear
planning and management by introducing a new high command
structure.
Islamabad's response was to integrate all research, design,
production, planning and
deployment of nuclear weapons in the NCA under Musharraf's
control, once again
positioning itself above its archrival. India still does not
have a centralized nuclear
authority body such as Pakistan's NCA, and its political and
military branches of
power are not linked together with regard to nuclear
weapons. India's civilian
government executes full control over design, research and
production of nuclear
weapons, while the Indian military is in charge of
operational control over nuclear
weapons.
Pakistan's government is concerned with not only nuclear but
also missile capability.
Gen. Musharraf also has established a Strategic Force
Command led by a serving
army general responsible for deployment of strategic
missiles. Pakistan possesses
two versions of a medium-range nuclear-capable missile
called Ghauri. Its Shaheen-1
and Shaheen-11 also belong to the same class of missiles.
The existing version of the
Ghauri missile is operational and has a range of 800 to
1,200 miles; the ability to carry
nuclear, biological and chemical warheads; and the ability
to be launched from land or
air. The missile is said to be equipped with an extremely
accurate guidance system.
By all these parameters, the Ghauri is superior to the India
medium-range missile
Prithvi. It means Pakistan's missile-launching abilities are
higher than those of India.
Pakistan also may have tested a new version of the Ghauri
with a range of up to 1,800
miles that amounts to a new class of missile - not medium
range, but the so-called
long-range missiles. To counter Pakistan's temporary
superiority, India is actively
working in two directions: first, to improve characteristics
and range of its
medium-range missiles, and second, to create its first
inter-continental ballistic
missile (ICBM) with a range of 5,000 to 8,000 miles.
By further integrating and strengthening its nuclear command
system under the NCA,
Pakistan is trying to better position itself for future
challenges in the region. The first
test is probable talks with India, in which Pakistan would
be able to talk from a
position of strength, not weakness. The NCA will guard the
work of organizations such
as the Khan Research Laboratories (KRL) led by Dr. Qadeer
Khan, who is considered
the mastermind of Pakistan's nuclear program, the National
Development Complex
(NDC) and the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC).
Thus, Musharraf is
reining in the very strong, nearly autonomous civilian
nuclear research and
development agencies. This will add to consolidation of his
authority in the country as
a whole and in the nuclear field in particular.
Musharraf has made himself the sole caretaker for the
country's nuclear arsenal. This
will make it much more difficult for someone else to use
Pakistan's nuclear weapons
and strategic missiles without Musharraf's authorization. He
faces the threat of some
hard-line factions within the military, Inter-Service
Intelligence and radical Islamic
circles whose influence in the country grows. Any of these
internal threats may try to
gain access to the Pakistani nuclear arsenal - either for
striking India or "the enemies
of Islam."
Musharraf also may have more authority and negotiation power
while dealing with the
United States and other Western powers. He needs it for
discussing the nuclear
proliferation problem and Pakistan's adherence, or
non-adherence, to the
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Musharraf can demonstrate the
international
community should not worry about Pakistan's non-adherence to
CTBT because its
nuclear weapons are now under complete control of secular-
and reform-minded
Musharraf.
Restructuring export control mechanisms through the NCA also
means Musharraf is
strengthening his control over the export of fissile
materials and nuclear technology. In
addition to Musharraf taking this important field under his
tight control, the move is
also an attempt to reverse the worsening of Pakistan-U.S.
relations. It is meant to
send a positive signal to America that Pakistan is making an
effort to tighten its export
controls on nuclear materials and technology.
Putting everything under Musharraf's control does give him
better leverage both inside
and outside the country. But it also gives him little
flexibility to place the responsibility
on others if he is in a tight spot and blamed for Pakistan's
current and likely future
failures.
Also, it remains to be seen whether this full control over
Pakistan's nuclear arsenal will
be transferred from Musharraf as the top leader of Pakistan
to the country's civilian
supreme authorities after elections are held next year. In
the status of the NCA, there
is no wording on the role of the Pakistani prime minister or
other top civilian authority
as a future head of the NCA. Also, if another military ruler
replaces Musharraf, there is
no guarantee his successor would pursue the same nuclear
policy.
Nevertheless, integrating all decision-making power over
nuclear weapons within the
NCA represents the opportunity to gain full control over
Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.
Provided the military does not rebel, a future civilian
government of the country would
have a chance to assert its authority over the whole nuclear
complex, since the NCA
is not a military body.
************************************************************************************
Distributed through Cyber-Society-Live [CSL]: CSL is a moderated discussion
list made up of people who are interested in the interdisciplinary academic
study of Cyber Society in all its manifestations.To join the list please visit:
http://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/lists/cyber-society-live.html
*************************************************************************************
|
