The Week in Europe
By David Jessop

Last October in Durban, South Africa, Britain's Prime Minister, Tony Blair,
met with Anglophone Caribbean Leaders attending the Commonwealth Heads of
Government Conference. The encounter was unusual. It appears that the
meeting changed his perceptions about the Caribbean and convinced him that
there was a basis to renew the region's historic relationship with the
United Kingdom.

According to one well placed observer, Prime Minister Blair had gone to the
meeting believing that that he would be in dialogue with a group of leaders
still locked into an historic analysis of Britain's role. But instead of
finding something akin to old Labour - the backward looking wing of his own
party - he discovered, as the dialogue proceeded, a meeting of minds with
the region's equivalent of new Labour. That is to say Caribbean exponents of
his political third way - a policy that espouses market economics with
social commitment - who were seeking a new relationship with Britain. 

As a result of his conversations with regional leaders and in particular
with Prime Ministers Owen Arthur of Barbados and P J Patterson of Jamaica,
it seems that Mr Blair felt that the region had begun to look to its future
rather than the past and Britain should consider what it might do to
facilitate this process. Mr Blair, then gave instructions that Britain
should begin to identify possible new initiatives in the region, not just
from the United Kingdom but actions in conjunction with others concerned
about the Caribbean's future.

The outcome is the second Caribbean Forum. From May 10 to 12 Caribbean
Foreign Ministers and Chief Ministers from British Overseas Territories will
consider with British ministers and others on how to work together on a wide
range of issues including economic change, security, development, education
and other matters. 

The meeting will be important. The ability or otherwise of participants to
rise to the challenge of the conversation in Durban may well determine in
the medium to longer term, overseas territories apart, just how substantial
a role Britain will play in the future in the Caribbean. 

In British Government circles there has been in recent years, weariness with
the Anglophone Caribbean among all but a very few ministers. This
principally reflects the intractable problems associated with the banana
dispute, but more importantly is indicative of changed national, political
and economic priorities and a belief that the region is in relative terms
wealthy and is no longer in absolute need of development assistance.

This has led to a feeling that the region and Britain's relationship must
move on; that there must be a rapid transition out of dependence on
traditional crops into newer industries; and that new forms of partnership
must be created at all levels if a relationship appropriate to a global
environment is to be created. While it is recognised that this will take
time, even the region's best friends in Government suggest that if economic
progress is not made within the next five to ten years then there will be
little more that Britain will do other than in a multilateral context.
 
On the face of it, this suggests that if Caribbean Governments come well
prepared with concrete ideas that reflect the dialogue in Durban and
practical proposals which will increase the velocity of development by
non-traditional means, there could be a sea change in the relationship.

While this is to be wished for, life is not so simple. From a regional
perspective there is little clarity on the type of positive role that
Britain should play in the region in the future. Although Caribbean
Governments are, as this is being written, co-ordinating their positions for
the Forum, they are unlikely to have one single long-term view of the role
Britain might play. More likely is that there will be a genuine consensus
only on the big political issues around which the region can coalesce

There are real reasons for this, no matter how frustrating it may seem in
London. Cabinet Ministers in larger regional nations are now of a mind to
see Britain as just one of a number of potential suitors. This view,
particularly amongst younger ministers and most importantly among the
Caribbean business community whose future is being decided daily in Geneva,
Washington and Brussels London is increasingly central to regional thinking.
They recognise the positive nature of the relationship with the UK, but
proceed from a belief that integration, regional and otherwise will be
achieved only through a desire to see true independence through a balanced
series of relationships.  At the other end of the spectrum, in many of the
region's smaller nations is a view based on history, dependence and
development assistance. These governments seem to feel the UK has in some
way an open ended commitment to the region  

This lack of coherence is unfortunate as, in the United Kingdom, the
development of policy towards the region is less and less informed. At an
economic level, few if any of the large investors who previously had a voice
in policy formulation are now involved in the process and as a result of
changes in British trade policy, this will be absolute by the year's end.
Unlike nations such as Spain and France where Government, business and
development initiatives are closely co-ordinated,  Britain now has a
devolved laissez faire approach other than for its most important
international markets. Traditionally Parliament also had a role. But today,
the House of Commons takes little interest except in a crisis, despite many
members having significant numbers in their electorates from the Caribbean
or with relatives in the region.  What little political debate there is, is
in the House of Lords. 

As a result British policy, other than that relating to concerns about
security issues and Overseas Territories, is now driven by a very small
group drawn from the Caribbean Diaspora, academics and it seems, misplaced
political concerns about the voting intentions of the Caribbean community in
the UK. This is in all probability a natural end to empire in a region that
is no longer of real significance to the United Kingdom. 

At the Forum, Caribbean Ministers will quite rightly seek to identify a
basis for a new relationship. Britain will offer new avenues for bilateral
partnership as well as the opportunity to third nations to better understand
and work together on the region's development needs. But is this enough? Who
will do the work? Political issues apart, the test of whether the
UK/Caribbean relationship can be renewed and new ideas developed and
implemented, will be the extent to which the Forum is able to establish a
timetable and identify resources both human and financial to deliver
practical solutions. 

David Jessop is the Executive Director of the Caribbean Council for Europe. 
May 5th, 2000





%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%