This is a reminder that there will be an RSS Lancashire and Cumbria
Local Group seminar on Thursday 6th December at the University of
Central Lancashire (UCLan), Preston. It will be held in Harrington
Building (room HA129), 14.00 - 17.00. The topic of the seminar is
'Knowledge Elicitation'. All are welcome to attend.
The speakers are Prof. Jeremy Oakley (School of Mathematics and
Statistics, University of Sheffield) and Prof. Paul Garthwaite
(Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Open University). The details
of the talks are below:
*Prof. Jeremy Oakley (School of Mathematics and Statistics, University
*Title:* "Eliciting probability distributions with SHELF"
*Abstract: *Eliciting a probability distribution is the process of
extracting an expert's (or group of experts') knowledge about some
uncertainty quantity of interest, and choosing a suitable distribution
to represent the expert's uncertainty. I will describe a general
approach for elicitation: the Sheffield Elicitation Framework (SHELF).
SHELF is a behavioural aggregation method for eliciting a distribution
from a group of experts. The process involves a face-to-face discussion
between the experts, managed by a facilitator. Individual opinions from
all participants are first recorded, and then a single distribution is
chosen following debate and discussion. Particular emphasis is placed on
justifying the chosen distribution in relation to available, documented
evidence. I will also demonstrate various (freely available) software
tools that can be used to support the process.
*Prof. Paul Garthwaite (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Open
*Title: *"Quantifying expert opinion about some sampling models that
*Abstract:* This talk will describe some elicitation methods for
quantifying expert opinion in the contexts of regression, categorical
data and generalized linear models. The methods all use interactive
graphics to elicit assessments from the expert and are implemented in
(free) software. The aim is to ask the expert to perform meaningful
tasks and convert the expert’s assessments into a probability
distribution that gives a useful representation of his or her opinions.
Examples where methods have been used will be given. One example
concerns a treatment pathway model that was developed to examine the
costs and benefits of the current bowel cancer service in England and to
evaluate potential alternatives in service provision. To use the pathway
model, various parameters and probability distributions had to be
specified. They could not all be determined from empirical evidence and,
instead, expert opinion was elicited in the form of probability
distributions that gave the required information.
The programme of the seminar is as follows:
2 - 3 pm -- Prof. Jeremy Oakley
3 - 3.20 pm -- Refreshments
3.20 - 4.20 pm -- Prof. Paul Garthwaite
4.20 Examples of knowledge elicitation for UCLan ICONS project and
Discussion (Dr. Svetlana Tishkovskaya)
Dr. Svetlana Tishkovskaya
RSS Lancashire and Cumbria Local Group
Faculty of Health and Wellbeing
University of Central Lancashire
Preston, PR1 2HE
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