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ALLSTAT  December 2018

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Subject:

Reminder: RSS Lancashire and Cumbria local group seminar: Knowledge Elicitation - Thursday 6th December

From:

Svetlana Tishkovskaya <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Svetlana Tishkovskaya <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 3 Dec 2018 18:27:18 +0000

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text/plain

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Dear All,

This is a reminder that there will be an RSS Lancashire and Cumbria 
Local Group seminar on Thursday 6th December at the University of 
Central Lancashire (UCLan), Preston. It will be held in Harrington 
Building (room HA129), 14.00 - 17.00. The topic of the seminar is 
'Knowledge Elicitation'. All are welcome to attend.

The speakers are Prof. Jeremy Oakley (School of Mathematics and 
Statistics, University of Sheffield) and Prof. Paul Garthwaite 
(Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Open University). The details 
of the talks are below:

*Prof. Jeremy Oakley (School of Mathematics and Statistics, University 
of Sheffield)*
*Title:* "Eliciting probability distributions with SHELF"
*Abstract: *Eliciting a probability distribution is the process of 
extracting an expert's (or group of experts') knowledge about some 
uncertainty quantity of interest, and choosing a suitable distribution 
to represent the expert's uncertainty. I will describe a general 
approach for elicitation: the Sheffield Elicitation Framework (SHELF). 
SHELF is a behavioural aggregation method for eliciting a distribution 
from a group of experts. The process involves a face-to-face discussion 
between the experts, managed by a facilitator. Individual opinions from 
all participants are first recorded, and then a single distribution is 
chosen following debate and discussion. Particular emphasis is placed on 
justifying the chosen distribution in relation to available, documented 
evidence. I will also demonstrate various (freely available) software 
tools that can be used to support the process.

*Prof. Paul Garthwaite (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Open 
University)*
*Title: *"Quantifying expert opinion about some sampling models that 
include covariates"
*Abstract:* This talk will describe some elicitation methods for 
quantifying expert opinion in the contexts of regression, categorical 
data and generalized linear models. The methods all use interactive 
graphics to elicit assessments from the expert and are implemented in 
(free) software. The aim is to ask the expert to perform meaningful 
tasks and convert the expert’s assessments into a probability 
distribution that gives a useful representation of his or her opinions. 
Examples where methods have been used will be given. One example 
concerns a treatment pathway model that was developed to examine the 
costs and benefits of the current bowel cancer service in England and to 
evaluate potential alternatives in service provision. To use the pathway 
model, various parameters and probability distributions had to be 
specified. They could not all be determined from empirical evidence and, 
instead, expert opinion was elicited in the form of probability 
distributions that gave the required information.

The programme of the seminar is as follows:
2 - 3 pm -- Prof. Jeremy Oakley
3 - 3.20 pm -- Refreshments
3.20 - 4.20 pm -- Prof. Paul Garthwaite
4.20 Examples of knowledge elicitation for UCLan ICONS project and 
Discussion (Dr. Svetlana Tishkovskaya)

===============================================================
Dr. Svetlana Tishkovskaya
RSS Lancashire and Cumbria Local Group
Faculty of Health and Wellbeing
University of Central Lancashire
Preston, PR1 2HE


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