RSS Merseyside Local Group Meeting - Predictions Within Sport - 5th June
The next RSS Merseyside Local Group meeting will take place tomorrow on Tuesday 5th June at 14.00pm in Room 507, Cedar House, University of Liverpool (Building 360, gridsquare D10 on campus map, see https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/media/livacuk/english/liverpool-university-campus-map.pdf).
We welcome Tom Hughes from Manchester United, and Prof. Ian McHale from the University of Liverpool to talk about Predictions within Sport.
14.00-14.45 Tom Hughes "Periodic Health Examination and Injury Prediction in Professional Football - the Prognosis is Good"
In professional football and other elite sports, medical and performance screening of athletes (also termed periodic health examination or PHE) is common practice. The purposes of this are to: 1) to assist in identifying the presence of conditions which may be a threat to safe participation, 2) to assist in setting benchmark targets for rehabilitation or performance purposes and 3) to assist clinicians in determining which athletes may be at risk of future injury and selecting appropriate injury prevention strategies to reduce the perceived risk. However, the capabilities of PHE as an injury prevention tool in sport is controversial: clinicians often unknowingly confuse whether they are trying to identify potential causes of injury or to predict future injury although the use of PHE for prediction purposes is debated in the literature. This presentation will outline the capabilities of PHE in practice in terms of prediction, explain why the broader concept of prognosis may be more relevant to professional athletes and highlight how statistics are vital to improving healthcare delivery in elite sport through evaluation of PHE practices and development of prognostic models.
14.45-15.00 Tea/Coffee Break
15.00-16.00 Prof. Ian McHale "Player Impact Evaluation: Assessing the Potential Impact of Players on the Performances of Football Teams"
We present a methodology for estimating the impact of recruitment decisions on team performances. By using information on player ratings in a model for predicting the outcome of an individual football match, it is possible to simulate the results of matches over the course of a season, with (or without) a named player in the team. One can then look at the differences in the simulated outcomes with (or without) the player, and get a feeling for how the player in question will influence the results of the team. One can look at important season-long outcomes like the probability of winning the league, or of being relegated.
The event is open to all, but as ever, please register in advance so that we can organise refreshments. For more information, and for the link to register, see https://sites.google.com/site/rssmerseyside/research-meetings/predictions-within-sport
Maria Sudell (Secretary, RSS Merseyside Local Group)
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