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Subject:

Re: Sergei Skirpal and a bad smell

From:

Julian Bradley <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

GP-UK <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 11 Apr 2018 23:49:03 +0100

Content-Type:

text/plain

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Parts/Attachments

text/plain (291 lines)

The concept of perseveration I'd noticed but never seen articulated - 
I had to look up the word!  The concept may have wide relevance in 
policy matters, including in the NHS.

We have a different view in that generally I'm more inclined to hold 
civil servants rather than ministers responsible exactly because they 
are in post for so much longer and seem much more inclined to hang on 
to the wrong old ideas (while all too often ditching what's worth 
keeping).  No argument naturally that all politicians including 
ministers can mis-speak, dissemble, mislead etc.

As to outcomes being guaranteed by a state it seems our "arguments" 
are somewhat at cross purposes.  There is no reason to disagree with 
what  you say about chemical weapons / this type of poison.  However 
if a state is (as we are being led to believe) experienced in 
terminating its supposed enemies, then it would be expected to choose 
a method that is effective.  States not experienced in this, or 
carefully secured targets eg. Castro, are a different matter, but 
Skirpal was a sitting duck, especially IF a state didn't mind leaving 
a huge trail of evidence to, as has been suggested, warn 
others.   North Korea might have been felt to have done this, but 
Malaysia has chosen to deal with the issue very differently.  We might learn.

New identities - the stories seem fairly extensive, but the issue is 
not central to the concern about events.

J


At 10:44 11/04/2018, you wrote:

>Her majesty's ministers are careless and inclined to perseverate.
>
>I very much doubt more serious and competent officers gave the minister
>exactly that info.  Russia was known to have developed the agents for
>weapons.  Saying more was an unforced errors but as with much ministers say
>no more affects reality than it reflects it.
>
>You suggest that a certain outcome could be guaranteed by a state.  I think
>you are wildly wrong there.
>
>In military use, sprayed over a battlefield, nobody expects everyone to
>die, and the delivery method and operators might be 20 miles away.  They
>expect not to be killed by their own weapon.
>
>Nobody knows how often the Bulgarian Umbrella did not kill its target.  We
>know it succeeded with Markov, but even there I suspect a quick excision of
>the pellet, whether Rambo fashion or by a smart casualty officer, would
>have left him rather ill for a while and then mostly recovered.
>
>Pouring half a kilo of nerve agent onto the target would be expected to
>kill him...
>And the assassin, and the street, and many Salisbury residents.  Recall
>Tokyo - their delivery method was simple, but large amounts of agent didn't
>produce as many casualties as they hoped.
>
>
>I suspect most of the rest - new identities etc - is journalistic fantasy.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>On Wed, 11 Apr 2018, 08:49 Karen Upton, <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>
> > In addition to this, the clips of the aftermath of the chemical weapons
> > attack in Syria is very questionable. I think that it is essential that
> > there is no reaction based on the film until verified by trusted people
> > going in to investigate. The children being forced to use salbutamol
> > inhalers, in a completely ineffective way, do not seem to have any signs if
> > respiratory difficulty or distress. Or any distress before being doused in
> > water. This does not mean there was no attack, but this is clearly a mock
> > up film.
> > This is a propaganda war first victim being the truth.
> >  Feels a bit like just before Iraq war from my seat.
> > Karen
> >
> > > On 10 Apr 2018, at 21:35, Julian Bradley <[log in to unmask]>
> > wrote:
> > >
> > > When a man tells you he knows the exact truth about anything, you may
> > safely infer he is an inexact man - Bertrand Russell
> > >
> > > How credible is it when Ben Wallace, Security Minister, says WE KNOW
> > that NO OTHER COUNTRY had these agents (Novichoks).
> > >
> > > Intelligence may lead us to believe that a country had certain weapons,
> > may even, in some circumstances prove their existence, but how can you be
> > sure that countries do NOT have something?
> > >
> > > Well fact checking / researching to write the next part of this email
> > turned up an article that Iran had synthesized a number of Novichok type
> > agents AND reported this to OPCW (so long as the production and research is
> > for the development of defensive countermeasures this is all allowed.  The
> > work was partly undertaken by scientists at Defense Chemical Research Lab
> > (DCRL), , Karaj, Iran.  The UK was therefore aware that other countries had
> > synthesized Novichoks in the kind of quantities needed for poisoning as
> > opposed to use as WMD.
> > >
> > >
> > 
> http://www.spectroscopynow.com/details/ezine/1591ca249b2/Iranian-chemists-identify-Russian-chemical-warfare-agents.html?tzcheck=1,1,1,1,1&&tzcheck=1&tzcheck=1&tzcheck=1
> > >
> > > https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/rcm.7757
> > >
> > > Questions also remain as to why the Skirpals are still alive as a state
> > applying its resources to this with a program of testing would surely have
> > been able to guarantee the outcome.
> > >
> > > Why would a state reveal, to what would be sure to be world
> > condemnation, a highly secretive programme for the sake of a washed up old
> > spy?
> > >
> > > Malala Yousafzai , the Nobel laureate who also survived an assassination
> > attempt, was not given a new identity,  even for the balance of her
> > childhood.  According to the UK media / govt. Yulia Skirpal was not the
> > intended target.  Why does she need to be hidden and why can she not be
> > visited by her relative from Russia with whom she seemed close, and who
> > _she_  chose to contact?
> > >
> > > https://www.craigmurray.org.uk remains interesting (despite the fact
> > that I suspect I disagree profoundly with his underlying politics).  The
> > failure to show his interview by Kay Burley given so much boring garbage on
> > her broadcast has all the hallmarks of the worst kind of censorship (rather
> > like the lack of and distorted news reporting of Victor Orban's victory in
> > Hungary which gave his government more than 2/3 of the seats in an
> > historically high turnout).
> > >
> > > What is or was the role of France in the investigation of the events in
> > Salisbury?  Why has the media not enquired or publicized anything about
> > this?  Is French involvement, in part responsible for the de facto (though
> > not de jure) presumption of guilt, a feature of the Napoleonic code.
> > >
> > > IF a party is innocent how can anyone use the fact that they can't
> > explain how a crime was committed to find them guilty?
> > >
> > > The smell is getting worse.
> > >
> > > One para from my last email I'll repeat.
> > >
> > > Amongst states with potential motives North Korea and Iran immediately
> > come to mind.  Both have advanced scientific facilities.  North Korea is
> > the ONLY state known to have used a nerve agent internationally ever and
> > while they killed their target it seems to have been done in a very
> > amateurish way using intermediaries.  It's not clear why neither the
> > politicians nor the media have mentioned this when considering "patterns of
> > behaviour".  In any case we know that North Korea clearly has nerve agents
> > while Iran is believed to have conducted research on nerve agents and will
> > likely have anything that Kuntsevich or others ever passed to Syria.
> > >
> > > As before ... just for the record.
> > >
> > > Julian
> >
>--
>
>A Midgley
>
>Nowadays: Property and Photography
>
>--00000000000000462f05698f7da0
>Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8"
>Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
>
>Her majesty&#39;s ministers are careless and inclined to perseverate.<div><=
>br></div><div>I very much doubt more serious and competent officers gave th=
>e minister exactly that info.=C2=A0 Russia was known to have developed the =
>agents for weapons.=C2=A0 Saying more was an unforced errors but as with mu=
>ch ministers say no more affects reality than it reflects it.</div><div><br=
> ></div><div><br></div><div>You suggest that a certain outcome could be guar=
>anteed by a state.=C2=A0 I think you are wildly wrong there.</div><div><br>=
></div><div>In military use, sprayed over a battlefield, nobody expects ever=
>yone to die, and the delivery method and operators might be 20 miles away.=
>=C2=A0 They expect not to be killed by their own weapon.</div><div><br></di=
>v><div>Nobody knows how often the Bulgarian Umbrella did not kill its targe=
>t.=C2=A0 We know it succeeded with Markov, but even there I suspect a quick=
>  excision of the pellet, whether Rambo fashion or by a smart casualty offic=
>er, would have left him rather ill for a while and then mostly recovered.</=
>div><div><br></div><div>Pouring half a kilo of nerve agent onto the target =
>would be expected to kill him...</div><div>And the assassin, and the street=
>, and many Salisbury residents.=C2=A0 Recall Tokyo - their delivery method =
>was simple, but large amounts of agent didn&#39;t produce as many casualtie=
>s as they hoped.=C2=A0=C2=A0</div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div>I susp=
>ect most of the rest - new identities etc - is journalistic fantasy.</div><=
>div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br><br><di=
>v class=3D"gmail_quote"><div dir=3D"ltr">On Wed, 11 Apr 2018, 08:49 Karen U=
>pton, &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:[log in to unmask]">[log in to unmask]</a=
> >&gt; wrote:<br></div><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin:0 0=
>  0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">In addition to this, t=
>he clips of the aftermath of the chemical weapons attack in Syria is very q=
>uestionable. I think that it is essential that there is no reaction based o=
>n the film until verified by trusted people going in to investigate. The ch=
>ildren being forced to use salbutamol inhalers, in a completely ineffective=
>  way, do not seem to have any signs if respiratory difficulty or distress. =
>Or any distress before being doused in water. This does not mean there was =
>no attack, but this is clearly a mock up film.<br>
>This is a propaganda war first victim being the truth.<br>
>=C2=A0Feels a bit like just before Iraq war from my seat.<br>
>Karen<br>
><br>
>&gt; On 10 Apr 2018, at 21:35, Julian Bradley &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:julian@=
>BULLDOG.CLARA.CO.UK" target=3D"_blank">[log in to unmask]</a>&gt; w=
>rote:<br>
>&gt;<br>
>&gt; When a man tells you he knows the exact truth about anything, you may =
>safely infer he is an inexact man - Bertrand Russell<br>
>&gt;<br>
>&gt; How credible is it when Ben Wallace, Security Minister, says WE KNOW t=
>hat NO OTHER COUNTRY had these agents (Novichoks).<br>
>&gt;<br>
>&gt; Intelligence may lead us to believe that a country had certain weapons=
>, may even, in some circumstances prove their existence, but how can you be=
>  sure that countries do NOT have something?<br>
>&gt;<br>
>&gt; Well fact checking / researching to write the next part of this email =
>turned up an article that Iran had synthesized a number of Novichok type ag=
>ents AND reported this to OPCW (so long as the production and research is f=
>or the development of defensive countermeasures this is all allowed.=C2=A0 =
>The work was partly undertaken by scientists at Defense Chemical Research L=
>ab (DCRL), , Karaj, Iran.=C2=A0 The UK was therefore aware that other count=
>ries had synthesized Novichoks in the kind of quantities needed for poisoni=
>ng as opposed to use as WMD.<br>
>&gt;<br>
>&gt; <a href=3D"http://www.spectroscopynow.com/details/ezine/1591ca249b2/Ir=
>anian-chemists-identify-Russian-chemical-warfare-agents.html?tzcheck=3D1,1,=
>1,1,1&amp;&amp;tzcheck=3D1&amp;tzcheck=3D1&amp;tzcheck=3D1" rel=3D"noreferr=
>er" target=3D"_blank">http://www.spectroscopynow.com/details/ezine/1591ca24=
>9b2/Iranian-chemists-identify-Russian-chemical-warfare-agents.html?tzcheck=
>=3D1,1,1,1,1&amp;&amp;tzcheck=3D1&amp;tzcheck=3D1&amp;tzcheck=3D1</a><br>
>&gt;<br>
>&gt; <a href=3D"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/rcm.7757" r=
>el=3D"noreferrer" target=3D"_blank">https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs=
>/10.1002/rcm.7757</a><br>
>&gt;<br>
>&gt; Questions also remain as to why the Skirpals are still alive as a stat=
>e applying its resources to this with a program of testing would surely hav=
>e been able to guarantee the outcome.<br>
>&gt;<br>
>&gt; Why would a state reveal, to what would be sure to be world condemnati=
>on, a highly secretive programme for the sake of a washed up old spy?<br>
>&gt;<br>
>&gt; Malala Yousafzai , the Nobel laureate who also survived an assassinati=
>on attempt, was not given a new identity,=C2=A0 even for the balance of her=
>  childhood.=C2=A0 According to the UK media / govt. Yulia Skirpal was not t=
>he intended target.=C2=A0 Why does she need to be hidden and why can she no=
>t be visited by her relative from Russia with whom she seemed close, and wh=
>o _she_=C2=A0 chose to contact?<br>
>&gt;<br>
>&gt; <a href=3D"https://www.craigmurray.org.uk" rel=3D"noreferrer" target=
>=3D"_blank">https://www.craigmurray.org.uk</a> remains interesting (despite=
>  the fact that I suspect I disagree profoundly with his underlying politics=
>).=C2=A0 The failure to show his interview by Kay Burley given so much bori=
>ng garbage on her broadcast has all the hallmarks of the worst kind of cens=
>orship (rather like the lack of and distorted news reporting of Victor Orba=
>n&#39;s victory in Hungary which gave his government more than 2/3 of the s=
>eats in an historically high turnout).<br>
>&gt;<br>
>&gt; What is or was the role of France in the investigation of the events i=
>n Salisbury?=C2=A0 Why has the media not enquired or publicized anything ab=
>out this?=C2=A0 Is French involvement, in part responsible for the de facto=
>  (though not de jure) presumption of guilt, a feature of the Napoleonic cod=
>e.<br>
>&gt;<br>
>&gt; IF a party is innocent how can anyone use the fact that they can&#39;t=
>  explain how a crime was committed to find them guilty?<br>
>&gt;<br>
>&gt; The smell is getting worse.<br>
>&gt;<br>
>&gt; One para from my last email I&#39;ll repeat.<br>
>&gt;<br>
>&gt; Amongst states with potential motives North Korea and Iran immediately=
>  come to mind.=C2=A0 Both have advanced scientific facilities.=C2=A0 North =
>Korea is the ONLY state known to have used a nerve agent internationally ev=
>er and while they killed their target it seems to have been done in a very =
>amateurish way using intermediaries.=C2=A0 It&#39;s not clear why neither t=
>he politicians nor the media have mentioned this when considering &quot;pat=
>terns of behaviour&quot;.=C2=A0 In any case we know that North Korea clearl=
>y has nerve agents while Iran is believed to have conducted research on ner=
>ve agents and will likely have anything that Kuntsevich or others ever pass=
>ed to Syria.<br>
>&gt;<br>
>&gt; As before ... just for the record.<br>
>&gt;<br>
>&gt; Julian<br>
></blockquote></div></div>-- <br><div dir=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_signature" =
>data-smartmail=3D"gmail_signature"><p dir=3D"ltr">A Midgley</p>
><p dir=3D"ltr">Nowadays: Property and Photography</p>
></div>
>
>--00000000000000462f05698f7da0--

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