The government's Private Finance Initiative (PFI) and the
associated Public Private Partnership (PPP) arrangements
have been used in many major projects in the UK, such as
the building of new schools, hospitals, and prisons.  Large
sums of money are involved, and risks  and payments are
shared in various ways between the state and the private
sector, calling for intensive analysis and difficult decisions.

Good Decision Ltd is organising a 3-day course aimed at the
decision-makers and their specialist advisors such as lawyers,
financial experts, engineers, and others.  Statisticians seem thin
on the ground in this area (where are we not!), but we think
those interested in risk assessment and the general task of
decision making in business and industrial settings may see
relevance for them or some of their clients.  We would
appreciate their forwarding this note to any clients who might
benefit from this event.


'Structured Decision Making for PFI/PPP Project Appraisal'

17-19 November 1999 in Glasgow

This 3-day event is aimed at helping organisations make better
decisions in connection with PFI/PPP projects.  A method
invented by the mathematician Tom Saaty is at the core of the
approach to be taught.  Known as the AHP (for 'analytic
hierarchy process') this method was inspired by Tom's
dissatisfaction with some of the reasoning displayed by
scientists and lawyers during preparations for arms control
negotiations.

Most senior managers request detailed studies and reports
before committing to expensive or high risk projects.
But there is a risk that much of this valuable information
will not receive due attention in the subsequent
decision-making process - unless a systematic method
is used to integrate the diverse information extracted
from such reports.

The AHP provides just such a methodology.  The
computational and display aspects will by handled by
software called 'Expert Choice' throughout the course.
It enables users to deal with complex decisions in an
intuitively appealing manner whilst being underpinned
by rigorous mathematics.

Participants will learn how to integrate hard data and
judgements, test for sensitivity, and how to look for
and deal with serious inconsistencies or disagreements
amongst a group sharing some decision.  Key skills
addressed will include the coherent handling of
benefits, costs, risks, and opportunities, enabling
participants to make enhanced use of the Treasury's
value for money equation.

The lead instructor will be Ernest Forman, of
George Washington University.  He is a professor
of management science, and has extensive experience
in teaching and applying executive decision making
methodologies, resource allocation, operations
management, and statistics.  He worked closely with
Professor Saaty in the design of Expert Choice software,
and is frequently consulted by organisations such as IBM,
MERCK, General Motors, Ford, Air Products and
Chemicals, Boeing, GAO, IRS, NASA, CIA, DoD, and
state and local government in the United States.

He will be assisted by David Taylor, a management
consultant who specialises in PFI and PPP projects,
notably in the use of Expert Choice for the evaluation
of dissimilar bids.  He recently provided consultancy
support for the National Audit Office in their review
of the £1 billion Defence Fixed Telecommunications
Service.

Fee per delegate is £1,290 plus VAT.

Interested parties should contact me for further information.

John Shade


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John Shade
Good Decision Ltd 		
Dunfermline Business Centre
Izatt Avenue		
Dunfermline
KY11 3BZ
Scotland

tel 	01383-733553
fax 	01383-733588
email  [log in to unmask]
web 	http://www.gdl.co.uk
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