The first meeting of Environmental Stats Study group for the new
session will be held on
Thursday 21st October at Errol St, London.
The meeting commences at 2pm and there are two speakers
Howard Grubb, University of Reading
Uncertainty in Geophysical and meteorological modelling.
Abstract
Geophysics and Meteorology make use of complex models of
physical systems to estimate observables and to predict
future behaviour of the systems.
A large amount of data and knowledge goes into specifing
and estimating these models.
However, there remain many uncertainties, particularly due to
the increased complexity of fine-scale representations.
The sources of uncertainty and their likely effect on the
required estimates or predictions will be reviewed and
illustrated with specific cases from geophysics.
and Tony O'Hagan, University of Sheffield
"Reducing Uncertainty in Mechanistic Models".
Abstract
There are several sources of uncertainty that need to be recognised in
the use of mechanistic computer models of environmental processes. The
talk will begin by reviewing these, but will focus on two particular
sources of uncertainty. Often, there are model inputs whose values
are not known exactly, but we can learn about these if there are
observations of the process itself. We present a Bayesian method for
calibrating models in this way that allows for remaining uncertainty
in the fitted inputs. A more complex source of error is deficiencies
in the model itself. We show how the residual errors after
calibration can be used to estimate and reduce model inadequacy.
All welcome
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Dr. Marian Scott [log in to unmask]
Department of Statistics www.stats.gla.ac.uk/~marian
University of Glasgow Phone: +44(0) 141 330 5125
Glasgow G12 8QW Fax: +44(0) 141 330 4814
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