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The odds ratio can be used as a reasonable estimate of the relative risk where the event rate is low (eg less than 1%). You are not likely to be able to find absolute risk estimates since most of the available data is from case-control studies. -----Original Message----- From: Klazien Matter-Walstra To: EBM Sent: 10/14/99 11:16 AM Subject: Melanoma Dear colleques, Although I have studied the literature intensively I am not succeeding in finding absolut risk numbers for sun exposure and developing melanoma . What I try to do is to say : When X persons are being exposed to the sun for a certain period, every day, only on holliday, or whatever), Y will develop melanoma and X-Y do not, and when Q persons are exposed less or more M will develop melanoma and Q-M will not, like in the 4 field tables, described for treatment. Does anybody knows about such numbers or studies or literature ? I only can find case controlled studies mentioning odd ratio's, which doesn't say anything about absolut risks. Thanks a lot With best regards, Dr. Klazien Matter-Walstra ___________________________________________________ Work: Stiftung Paracelsus heute Ilgenweidstrasse 3 8840 Einsiedeln Tel: +41 (0)55 4188195, Fax: +41 (0)55 4188196 [log in to unmask] http://www.paracelsus-heute.ch/ Privat: Innerbergstrasse 55 3044 Innerberg Tel/Fax +41 (0)31 8292944 [log in to unmask] http://www.datacomm.ch/kmatter %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%