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This is anecdotal, but in my part of the UK there was definitely something going around which caused a febrile illness that made fit young people take to their beds and shiver, and left them feeling washed out for up to 2 weeks afterwards. This affected large numbers of patients and staff hereabouts. Whether this was influenza, or was an epidemic, I don't know: but the effect on our practice was at least as much as previous "influenza epidemics" over the last 15 years that I've been here. Paul Paul Robinson GP and Course Organiser Scarborough -----Original Message----- From: [log in to unmask] [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Paul Flynn Sent: 27 February 1999 15:30 To: Andrew Jull; [log in to unmask] Subject: Re: Supposed influenza epidemic in UK Dear Andrew, The reason you haven't found a trace of an influenza "epidemic" is that it was entirely media-generated. I have been told by the Royal College of General Practitioners that their unit which co-ordinates the sentinel practices has reported no greater incidence of influenza than average for that time of year and certainly well short of the criteria for an epidemic (If you need numbers I'm sure I can find out for you). What did happen was the annual winter bed crisis in the NHS which happens because a system which is supposed to run at 85% bed occupancy actually runs at 95% occupancy for most of the year and thus has no slack to cope with the surge of admissions for exacerbations of chronic respiratory disease, etc., which occurs during winter. The emergency workload of the NHS has risen by approximately 10% year on year and so this year's crisis was, not surprisingly, the worst in history. Those keen on conspiracy theories have suggested that the reason the popular press latched on to the "influenza epidemic" was that it was more acceptable to politicians to blame an "unpredictable" virus rather than the very predictable consequences of chronic underfunding of the NHS. Sorry if this is rather less than evidence-based. Regards, Paul. Dr. Paul M. Flynn MB,BCh,BAO,MRCOG 164 Oxford Road, Middlesbrough, TS5 5EJ, UK -----Original Message----- From: Andrew Jull <[log in to unmask]> To: [log in to unmask] <[log in to unmask]> Date: 21 February 1999 22:49 Subject: Supposed influenza epidemic in UK >Dear all > >I have been asked to investigate the "influenza epidemic" in the UK in early >January. I have checked BBC news, Eurpoean Influenza Surveillance Scheme and >PHS in the UK on the WWW and can find no trace of the "epidemic" apart from >denials, news about the bed shortage, and data about consultation rates. My >bosses are particularly interested because of a reported 3000 deaths, >although again I can find no data to support (apart from the usual seasonal >increase in respiratory deaths). Can any point me in the direction of some >decent data on > >1. mortality directly attributable to influenza >2. influenza vaccination uptake rates 1998/99 season >3. Causes of the bed shortage. > >regards >Andrew Jull >Auckland Hospital >New Zealand %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%