The next Royal Statistical Society Medical Section meeting will be from 2pm on Tuesday 30th November, and will be held at the Royal Statistical Society, 12 Errol Street, LONDON, EC1Y 8LX. The meeting will consist of five talks on various aspects of PUBLICATION BIAS in META-ANALYSIS. The programme appears below, and abstracts can either be found below the programme or at http://www.prw.le.ac.uk/epidemio/personal/kra1/pubias.html Directions to the Royal Statistical Society can be found at http://www.rss.org.uk/index2.html and any further details can be obtained from Keith Abrams, Tel 0116 252 3217 or e-mail [log in to unmask] All are very welcome Royal Statistical Society Medical Section Meeting on PUBLICATION BIAS in META-ANALYSIS 2pm - 5.30pm, Tuesday 30th November 1999, at Royal Statistical Society, 12 Errol Street, LONDON, EC1Y 8LX 2.00 - 2.40 Introduction to Publication Bias and Related Problems FUJIAN SONG (University of York) 2.40 - 3.15 Tests for publication bias. Do they work, and how do we interpret their results? JONATHAN STERNE (University of Bristol) 3.15 - 3.40 Detecting bias and correcting for bias: The case of placebo-controlled trials of homoeopathy MATTHIAS EGGER (University of Bristol) 3.40 - 4.15 Tea 4.15 - 4.50 Adjusting the results of a meta-analysis for publication bias ALEX SUTTON (University of Leicester) 4.50 - 5.30 Modelling Publication Bias JOHN COPAS (University of Warwick) ************************* ABSTRACTS **************************** Introduction to Publication Bias and Related Problems FUJIAN SONG (University of York) Abstract: A review was conducted to identify and appraise studies that have examined methodological issues and provided empirical evidence about publication bias. The available evidence demonstrates that research with significant results or favourable results is more likely to be published than that with non-significant or unfavourable results. The extent and direction of such selective publication is uncertain, and may vary greatly depending on the circumstances. Methods available to detect or adjust publication bias in systematic reviews are by nature indirect and exploratory, and the risk of publication bias should be assessed in all systematic reviews. Tests for publication bias. Do they work, and how do we interpret their results? JONATHAN STERNE (University of Bristol) Abstract: Funnel plot asymmetry has long been used to diagnose publication bias. We examine the power of statistical analogues of the funnel plot which have been proposed as tests for publication bias, and the frequency with which they detect bias in the medical literature. Publication bias is one of a number of possible causes of funnel plot asymmetry, and multivariable meta-regression analyses may be needed to understand different causes of between-trial heterogeneity. Detecting bias and correcting for bias: The case of placebo-controlled trials of homoeopathy MATTHIAS EGGER (University of Bristol) Abstract: A recent meta-analysis of 89 placebo-controlled trials of homoeopathy was interpreted as showing that the effects of homeopathy are unlikely to be due to placebo (Linde et al, Lancet 1997). The authors corrected for publication bias using a selection model and performed a number of sensitivity analyses. In this short presentation I will discuss the approach of Linde et al. and present a re-analysis using random-effects meta-regression which shows that a combination of publication bias and low methodological quality of component studies may explain the apparent beneficial effect of homoeopathy. Adjusting the results of a meta-analysis for publication bias ALEX SUTTON (University of Leicester) Abstract: Publication bias can distort and possibly invalidate the conclusions of a systematic review. The newly proposed method of "Trim and Fill" is described, which, in addition to offering a significance test for the presence of publication bias, also produces a pooled estimate adjusted for the estimated level of publication bias in a meta-analysis. This method adjusts for publication bias by imputing studies suspected missing using symmetry assumptions, and can be considered a form of sensitivity analysis. This results of applying this method to meta-analyses in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews are presented, together with a comparison between the various significance tests for publication bias. Modelling Publication Bias JOHN COPAS (University of Warwick) Abstract: Correcting for publication bias is impossible without making unverifiable assumptions. Equivalently, any model which explains publication bias must include unidentifiable parameters. However, a sensitivity analysis is possible, which can identify the range of estimates which give a good fit to the observed funnel plot. Two recent systematic reviews about the health risks of passive smoking will be discussed. %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%