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in addition to the points raised by dr ghosh's correspondent, you might
want to consider that specificity should fall as you move from primary to
tertiary care for any clinical finding or test that serves as a stimulus
for referral.  ameen patel reported that a few year's ago (Patel A,
Sackett DL. The Referral Forces that Raise Prevalence Also Lower
Specificity.  Clinical Research, Vol 40, No 2, 1991, 370A.)

but it's even more complex than that, as jim wagner is showing in the
study he's leading into the diagnosis of appendicitis.  if primary care
folks over-read a sign (raising its sensitivity so that they don't miss
any true positives) specificity may rise in tertiary care.

a couple of morals to this tale:
1. us secondary and tertiary clinicians need to be more careful about what
we teach GP-trainees about the usefulness of signs and symptoms.
2. we might want to lighten up on our criticism of our tertiary care
colleagues for jumping to imaging or other high-tech investigations early
in their evaluations of patients: to the extent that we do proper
histories and physical exams before we refer patients, the diagnostic
power of the signs and symptoms will be "used up" before they get to the
sub-specialists.

cheers
dls
............................................................................
Prof David L. Sackett
Director, NHS R&D Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine
Consultant in Medicine                    Editor, Evidence-Based Medicine
Nuffield Department of Medicine,          University of Oxford
Level 5, John Radcliffe Hospital,         Oxford OX3 9DU, England
Phone: +44-(0)1865-221320                 Fax:  +44-(0)1865 222901
Email: [log in to unmask]          WWW:  http://cebm.jr2.ox.ac.uk
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