Ian
(1) difficult to say whether lying- but apparently they were wrong in
some way
(2) they look like crying wolf but not necessarily lying, sometimes
there is a wolf according to story Peter and the wolf
(3) non seq
------ Original Message ------
From: "Ian Campbell" <[log in to unmask]>
To: [log in to unmask]
Sent: Friday, 28 Jul, 23 At 08:06
Subject: Re: Aim for Friends of Wisdom Group - 41 predictions
Thank you Roger,
So are you saying that we should conclude the following?
(1) All the people involved in your list of "41 failed doomsday,
eco-pocalyptic predictions" were lying.
(2) The scientists in the IPCC involved in the latest reports and
predictions of severe consequences are also all crying wolf i.e.
lying.
(3) The stated need to cut fossil fuel use radically (of the order
of 20% per year) should be ignored.
Best wishes,
Ian
---------------------------------------------------------------Ian
Campbell 0151 625 1449https://www.carbonindependent.org
<https://www.carbonindependent.org> - carbon footprint
calculator---------------------------------------------------------------
On 27/07/2023 16:49, ROGER ANDERTON wrote:
Ian
As I said - its crying wolf.
cry wolf To claim that
something is happening when it really isn't, which
results in the rejection of subsequent valid claims.
The expression comes from one of Aesop's
fables, in which a young shepherd lies about
a wolf threatening his flock so many times
that people do not believe him when he and
his flock are legitimately in danger.
https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/Crying+wolf
<https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/Crying+wolf>
------ Original Message ------ From: "Ian Campbell"
<[log in to unmask]> <mailto:[log in to unmask]> To:
[log in to unmask]
<mailto:[log in to unmask]> Sent: Thursday, 27 Jul, 23 At
07:51 Subject: Re: Aim for Friends of Wisdom Group - 41 predictions
Thank you Roger, What do you think we should conclude
from these 41 cases? Best wishes, Ian
---------------------------------------------------------------Ian
Campbell 0151 625 1449https://www.carbonindependent.org
<https://www.carbonindependent.org> - carbon footprint
calculator---------------------------------------------------------------
On 26/07/2023 11:21, ROGER ANDERTON wrote:
>> “If we don’t act dramatically substantially to diminish
global warming in the next 5 years, certainly ten years,
things are going to get really grim.”<<
Many doomsday dates have already passed.
There is only some many times that crying wolf can be
tolerated.
Below are the 41 failed doomsday, eco-pocalyptic
predictions:
1. 1967
<https://www.newspapers.com/image/9818993/?terms=paul%2Behrlich%2Bblue%2Bsteam>
: Dire Famine Forecast By 1975 2. 1969
<https://www.nytimes.com/1969/08/10/archives/foe-of-pollution-sees-lack-of-time-asserts-environmental-ills.html>
: Everyone Will Disappear In a Cloud Of Blue Steam By 1989
(1969) 3. 1970
<https://www.newspapers.com/image/435402308/> : Ice Age By 2000
4. 1970
<https://www.newspapers.com/image/934139/?terms=paul%2Behrlich%2Bblue%2Bsmoke>
: America Subject to Water Rationing By 1974 and Food
Rationing By 1980 5. 1971
<https://web.archive.org/web/20160805020812/http:/pqasb.pqarchiver.com/washingtonpost_historical/doc/148085303.html?FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:AI&type=historic&date=html+%2C+&author=By+Victor+Cohn%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7CWashington+Post+Staff+Writer&pub=The+Washington+Post%2C+Times+Herald++%281959-1973%29&desc=U.S.+Scientist+Sees+New+Ice+Age+Coming&pqatl=top_retrieves>
: New Ice Age Coming By 2020 or 2030 6. 1972
<https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outreach/CDPW40/CD&PW_reeves_denver.pdf>
: New Ice Age By 2070 7. 1974
<https://www.newspapers.com/image/259696938/?terms=new%2Bice%2Bage> :
Space Satellites Show New Ice Age Coming Fast
8. 1974
<http://web.archive.org/web/20060812025725/http:/time-proxy.yaga.com/time/archive/printout/0,23657,944914,00.html>
: Another Ice Age? 9. 1974
<https://www.newspapers.com/image/69651456/?terms=ozon%2Bdepletion> :
Ozone Depletion a ‘Great Peril to Life (data
<https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/annual_data.html> and
graph <https://ourworldindata.org/ozone-layer> ) 10. 1976
<https://www.nytimes.com/1976/07/18/archives/the-genesis-strategy-a-chilling-prospect.html>
: Scientific Consensus Planet Cooling, Famines imminent
11. 1980
<https://www.newspapers.com/image/353862247/?terms=%22acid%2Brain%22%2Band%2Bkill%2Bbefore>
: Acid Rain Kills Life In Lakes (additional link
<https://www.newspapers.com/image/546105274/?terms=%22acid%2Brain%22%2Band%2BNAPAP>
) 12. 1978
<https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1978/01/05/issue.html> :
No End in Sight to 30-Year Cooling Trend (additional link
<https://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/> )
13. 1988
<https://realclimatescience.com/2019/05/hansen-got-everything-wrong-alarmists-claim-victory/>
: Regional Droughts (that never happened) in 1990s
14. 1988
<https://realclimatescience.com/2019/05/hansen-got-everything-wrong-alarmists-claim-victory/>
: Temperatures in DC Will Hit Record Highs 15.
1988 <http://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/102074798> : Maldive
Islands will Be Underwater by 2018 (they’re not)
16. 1989
<https://www.newspapers.com/image/247922164/?terms=global%2Bwarming%2Bnoel%2Bbrown>
: Rising Sea Levels will Obliterate Nations if Nothing Done
by 2000 17. 1989
<https://wayback.archive.org/web/20110202162233/https:/www.salon.com/books/int/2001/10/23/weather/>
: New York City’s West Side Highway Underwater by 2019 (it’s
not) 18. 2000
<https://web.archive.org/web/20150912124604/http:/www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html>
: Children Won’t Know what Snow Is 19. 2002
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2004/feb/22/usnews.theobserver>
: Famine In 10 Years If We Don’t Give Up Eating Fish, Meat,
and Dairy 20. 2004
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2004/feb/22/usnews.theobserver>
: Britain will Be Siberia by 2024 21. 2008
<https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1988&dat=20080624&id=7mgiAAAAIBAJ&sjid=7qkFAAAAIBAJ&pg=5563,4123490>
: Arctic will Be Ice Free by 2018 22. 2008
<https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/12/16/ten-years-ago-algore-predicted-the-north-polar-ice-cap-would-be-gone-inconveniently-its-still-there/>
: Climate Genius Al Gore Predicts Ice-Free Arctic by 2013
23. 2009
<https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/green-living/just-96-months-to-save-world-says-prince-charles-1738049.html>
: Climate Genius Prince Charles Says we Have 96 Months to
Save World 24. 2009
<http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2009/12/gore-new-study-sees-nearly-ice-free-arctic-summer-ice-cap-as-early-as-2014/1#.XVm6Py2ZNu3>
: UK Prime Minister Says 50 Days to ‘Save The Planet From
Catastrophe’ 25. 2009
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/jul/24/arctic-ice-free-methane-economy-catastrophe>
: Climate Genius Al Gore Moves 2013 Prediction of Ice-Free
Arctic to 2014 26. 2013
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/jul/24/arctic-ice-free-methane-economy-catastrophe>
: Arctic Ice-Free by 2015 (additional link
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-02550-9> ) 27.
2014
<https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/weekly-standard/planet-still-standing-500-days-after-french-foreign-minister-warned-of-climate-chaos>
: Only 500 Days Before ‘Climate Chaos’ 28. 1968
<https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/book-incited-worldwide-fear-overpopulation-180967499/>
: Overpopulation Will Spread Worldwide 29. 1970
<http://www.mining.com/the-world-is-not-running-out-of-natural-resources/>
: World Will Use Up All its Natural Resources
30. 1966
<https://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/weve-been-incorrectly-predicting-peak-oil-for-over-a-ce-1668986354>
: Oil Gone in Ten Years 31. 1972
<https://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/weve-been-incorrectly-predicting-peak-oil-for-over-a-ce-1668986354>
: Oil Depleted in 20 Years 32. 1977
<https://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/weve-been-incorrectly-predicting-peak-oil-for-over-a-ce-1668986354>
: Department of Energy Says Oil will Peak in 1990s
33. 1980
<https://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/weve-been-incorrectly-predicting-peak-oil-for-over-a-ce-1668986354>
: Peak Oil In 2000 34. 1996
<https://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/weve-been-incorrectly-predicting-peak-oil-for-over-a-ce-1668986354>
: Peak Oil in 2020 35. 2002
<https://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/weve-been-incorrectly-predicting-peak-oil-for-over-a-ce-1668986354>
: Peak Oil in 2010 36. 2006
<https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2015/06/01/media-fail-no-major-hurricanes-in-9-years/>
: Super Hurricanes! 37. 2005
<https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/scott-whitlock/2015/06/12/flashback-abcs-08-prediction-nyc-under-water-climate-change-june>
: Manhattan Underwater by 2015 38. 1970
<https://www.aei.org/publication/18-spectacularly-wrong-predictions-made-around-the-time-of-first-earth-day-in-1970-expect-more-this-year-2/>
: Urban Citizens Will Require Gas Masks by 1985
39. 1970
<https://www.aei.org/publication/18-spectacularly-wrong-predictions-made-around-the-time-of-first-earth-day-in-1970-expect-more-this-year-2/>
: Nitrogen buildup Will Make All Land Unusable
40. 1970
<https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2018/11/27/nolte-only-anti-science-suckers-believe-climate-change-hysteria/>
: Decaying Pollution Will Kill all the Fish 41.
1970s <https://groovyhistory.com/killer-bees-1970s> : Killer Bees!
https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/50-years-of-failed-doomsday-eco-pocalyptic-predictions-the-so-called-experts-are-0-50/
<https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/50-years-of-failed-doomsday-eco-pocalyptic-predictions-the-so-called-experts-are-0-50/>
------ Original Message ------ From: "Ian Campbell"
<[log in to unmask]> <mailto:[log in to unmask]> To:
[log in to unmask]
<mailto:[log in to unmask]> Sent: Wednesday, 26 Jul, 23
At 10:52 Subject: Re: Aim for Friends of Wisdom Group
Dear Nick (and All), You wrote: “If we don’t act
dramatically substantially to diminish global warming in the next
5 years, certainly ten years, things are going to get really
grim.” I think it is worth having some numbers from the
climate science since there is so much misunderstanding,
misinformation, denial, and complacency. The
extreme urgency of action on the climate is shown by calculations
of the CO2 budget to keep global warming to within 1.5degC . The
UK’s share of this global CO2 budget runs out in 18 months, at the
end of 2024. Yes, that’s next year. This is clearly not well
known, which is a scandal since the calculations are simple, have
been done repeatedly for over a decade, and are readily available.
Some sources for these calculations are - University of Surrey
report:
https://cusp.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/WP-29-Zero-Carbon-Sooner-update.pdf
<https://cusp.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/WP-29-Zero-Carbon-Sooner-update.pdf>
- My letter in the British Medical Journal:
https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2391.full?ijkey=Hz5kDxh4kFos8jz&keytype=ref
<https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2391.full?ijkey=Hz5kDxh4kFos8jz&keytype=ref>
- Manchester Uni reports for each UK local authority:
https://carbonbudget.manchester.ac.uk/reports/
<https://carbonbudget.manchester.ac.uk/reports/> - my
explanatory webpage: https://www.carbonindependent.org/33.html
<https://www.carbonindependent.org/33.html> This extreme urgency
means we have to stop using fossil fuels as fast as possible -
e.g. 20% reduction per year - whish means e.g. stopping leisure
flying immediately, and a massive reorganisation of every aspect
of society. I think that whatever decisions the FoW group
make, any aims and actions with regard to the climate should be in
line with this extreme urgency of action. Otherwise, they will
just add to the problem of denial. Best wishes,
Ian
---------------------------------------------------------------Ian
Campbell 0151 625 1449https://www.carbonindependent.org
<https://www.carbonindependent.org> - carbon footprint
calculator---------------------------------------------------------------
On 25/07/2023 20:12, Maxwell, Nicholas wrote:
Dear Daniel,
You will be pleased to hear that there
has been no narrowing of the basic aim of Friends of Wisdom
as far as I am concerned. The Climate and Nature crises are
surely absolute disasters, and yet the world still pumps out
vast quantities of greenhouse gases, making everything so
much worse. Tens of thousands of people died of heat last
year in Europe, and hundreds of thousands, possibly
millions, have died around the world. There is already
catastrophic loss to wild life. Mass extinction of species
is inevitable. If we don’t act dramatically substantially
to diminish global warming in the next 5 years, certainly
ten years, things are going to get really grim. Vast tracts
of the earth will become uninhabitable; immigration will
turn into torrents, which will generate war, and horrible
right wing governments, already happening. We have a brief
window of opportunity for sane global action in this already
pretty insane global political world. Science and
technology, pursued so successful, mainly in universities
have played a key role in generating the climate and
ecological disasters, and all the problems they in turn
create. Not only that, but science and technology also fail
lamentably to solve the problems they have helped generate,
as a result of being pursued within the disastrously
irrational structure of knowledge-inquiry.The climate crisis
is a classical case. We have known about it since the early
1960s. Universities have failed lamentably to get anything
effective done over decades. We have all he science and
technological know-how to deal with problem. It is relevant
action, above all government action, that we lack – and of
course universities as they exist at the moment, devoted
primarily to the pursuit of knowledge, are horribly
ill-equipped to promote such action, as far as government,
the public, business, etc. are concerned.
The problem is not the extraordinarily successful pursuit of
scientific knowledge and technological know-how. It is that
pursuit dissociated from a more fundamental rational
tackling of our problems of living, the active promotion by
universities of the cooperatively rational tackling of
problems of living, local and global, in communities,
governments, businesses, etc. everywhere – or everywhere
possible.
Universities are stuck in a dogma rut when it comes to
thinking about fundamental issues. And it has got far
worse, in my tragic little country, with mad increase in
specialization, ever more potent administration when it
should be the servant of the intellectual life of the
university (which should include serious, sustained
discussion of absolutely fundamental problems and aims.
When I joined UCL as a fledgling assistant lecturer in 1966
it really was much more like that. I watched things get
steadily worse, especially with Thatcher interventions. The
Provost began sending round lists of people who did not
attend what were considered vital committee meetings. My
name, of course, was on the list. I paid no attention.
I have always been aware we need to pay attention to schools
as well as universities: see a short piece I wrote ages ago,
in 1985 called “Philosophy Seminars for Five Year Olds”,
which I abandoned when I discovered subsequently the
philosophy for children movement, but then was encouraged
years later finally to publish it by the editor of a
journal, especially as what we both meant by philosophy was
quite different from the phil for kids movement. Here is
the link to my little article:
https://philarchive.org/rec/MAXPSF <https://philarchive.org/rec/MAXPSF>
But not all is lost. At UCL we have a good new Provost who
was very sympathetic when I proposed, in effect, that there
should be just such a philosophy seminar (or symposium) for
5 year olds for 55 year old Professors and everyone else at
UCL, since at present nothing like it seems to exist. It
would of course include serious discussion of how
universities might more effectively help people – humanity –
achieve what is of value in life for self and others. I
created a such a seminar when I was full time at UCL, and it
was wonderfully successful. Unfortunately, despite the
Provost’s enthusiastic support, and despite passionate
support from one member of staff, so far it has met with
incomprehension and opposition.
All good wishes,
Nick
Website: www.ucl.ac.uk/from-knowledge-to-wisdom
<http://www.ucl.ac.uk/from-knowledge-to-wisdom>
Publications online: http://philpapers.org/profile/17092
<http://philpapers.org/profile/17092>
http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/view/people/ANMAX22.date.html
<http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/view/people/ANMAX22.date.html>
From: Group concerned that academia should seek and
promote wisdom <[log in to unmask]>
<mailto:[log in to unmask]> On Behalf Of
Daniel Lewis Sent: 25 July 2023 16:02
To: [log in to unmask]
<mailto:[log in to unmask]> Subject: Re:
Aim for Friends of Wisdom Group
⚠ Caution: External sender
Dear Nick and friends, My understanding
is that the currently stated aim of Friends of Wisdom
(both as a group and as individuals) is to "...try to
encourage universities and schools actively to seek and
promote wisdom by educational and intellectual means"
(quoting from the https://www.ucl.ac.uk/friends-of-wisdom
<https://www.ucl.ac.uk/friends-of-wisdom> website)?
The aim suggested in Nick's below email (i.e., "to create
greater awareness of the urgent need to transform
universities, wherever possible, so that they become much
more actively and effectively engaged in helping to put a
stop to the climate and ecological crises.") appears to be
narrower than the aim stated on the website. If we agree
that this is a narrower aim, it would be interesting to
understand the motivations for a potential narrowing of
the aim. Is there a belief that focusing on the specific
problems of climate and ecological crises would have
benefits over focussing on a broader set of crises? For
example, is there a belief that it would make us more
effective as an organization, or that it would catalyze
change or gather more interest, attention, or momentum; or
is there a belief that the impact of these crises is
greater than other crises and thus merits greater focus?
As a potential alternative to narrowing the existing
aim, what do you all think about instead broadening the
aim of FoW? The world needs more wisdom in other areas
as well, within realms such as those of politics,
business, various other institutions, and society as a
whole. Hopefully transforming academia and education
would make an impact on these realms, but could FoW also
effectively promote wisdom directly within these realms?
Could we try to promote the incorporation of "wisdom
inquiry" or "aim-oriented rationalism" directly within
these areas? Since we're discussing changing the aim of
FoW, broadening the aim beyond that stated on our
website is an option to consider. In considering this
option, a key question may be: could it better help us
to promote positive change in a way that's aligned with
the spirit of the group?
Many years ago we discussed broadening the aim of FoW
in a group phone call, but it's been long enough since
that discussion that we may as well begin the discussion
anew.
Optimistically, a broader aim might have some
benefits... It might catch more attention than
exclusively focusing on transforming universities and
schools. Probably, to many people who are concerned
about global crises, topics related to universities and
schools can come across as dry, dusty, boring,
meaningless, or even irrelevant. I don't think that
these words fairly describe academia when it's practiced
genuinely rationally, but the point remains that many
people (especially non-academics) probably perceive it
in this way. As such, focussing on areas beyond
academia, schools, and universities might capture the
interest of a broader audience and thereby help our
group to gather momentum. Additionally, it might allow
us to incorporate discussions of solutions to global
crises and problems of living more fulsomely into our
mandate.
Rather than attempting to propose a broader aim in this
email, or to speak to broader aims that have already
been proposed in emails from other members of the group
(e.g., in Leland's "Friends of Wisdom Virtual Task List"
document), I'll let the potential wordsmithing and aim
selection process wait until the group thinks through
the general idea of broadening its aim.
Assuming for a moment that the group decides not to
broaden the aim already stated on its website, may I
suggest instead considering broadening the aim suggested
in Nick's email below. For example, a slightly broader
version of it would be the following:
The aim of the Friends of Wisdom group is to create
greater awareness of the urgent need to transform
universities, wherever possible, so that they become
much more actively and effectively engaged in helping to
put a stop to global crises, such as the climate and
ecological crises. (Italics mine).
This little tweak (in italics) would broaden the below
aim while still keeping the emphasis on the climate and
ecological crises. I'm unsure though whether it's
strategic to single out the climate and ecological
crises. Would the aim appeal to a wider audience if
other issues (e.g., issues of social justice, or other
issues of existential risk) were also mentioned? Do we
want the group's aim to have wider appeal? Are global
crises too interconnected or too varied for us to single
out any specific subset of them in a statement of aims
for FoW? Even if there are concerns about singling out
specific crises, could these concerns be outweighed by
clarification of the intent of the group or by somehow
catalyzing group action? These could be more questions
for the group to discuss.
My goal with asking all these questions is not to
express negative criticism, nor is it to paralyze
decision making; I hope we don't let that happen.
I'd like to end this email by saying that it's
heartening to see the openness to change and
organizational improvement reflected by the ongoing
conversation about refining the group's aim(s).
Best, Daniel
On Tue, Jun 27, 2023 at 2:26 PM Maxwell, Nicholas
<[log in to unmask] <mailto:[log in to unmask]> >
wrote:
Dear Friends of Wisdom,
Last
month, on the 19th May, I sent out an email
suggesting that FoW, or some of us, might do more
to try to get universities to become a more
actively engaged in putting a stop to the climate
and ecological crises. In response to that email,
we had the Friends of Wisdom Zoom Meeting last
Thursday to discuss the issue, and see if some of
us wished to become more active, and could agree
on an aim to pursue, and actions to take in
pursuit of the aim. Lots of things were
discussed, but we did not quite get round to
agreeing on an aim. Here is my suggestion:
The aim of the Friends of Wisdom group is to
create greater awareness of the urgent need to
transform universities, wherever possible, so that
they become much more actively and effectively
engaged in helping to put a stop to the climate
and ecological crises.
If we
can agree on that aim, we can go on to discuss, at
our next Zoom Meeting, the things that we might do
in pursuit of that aim. We could then discuss
what sort of organization we might set up to
facilitate our actions. Above all, we need to
find out if there are Friends of Wisdom members
prepared to devote some time to getting such an
organization up and running. As I see it, it
would be an offshoot of Friends of Wisdom, with a
distinct title. Something like “Universities to
Help Save the World from Disaster”, or
“Universities for a Wiser World”.
All good wishes,
Nick
Website: www.ucl.ac.uk/from-knowledge-to-wisdom
<http://www.ucl.ac.uk/from-knowledge-to-wisdom>
Publications online: http://philpapers.org/profile/17092
<http://philpapers.org/profile/17092>
http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/view/people/ANMAX22.date.html
<http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/view/people/ANMAX22.date.html>
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