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Thanks Martin, I’d not heard about the UoO Institute, but did hear Toby Ord speak at the Bristol Festival of Ideas about this. Very interesting.
Re: climate breakdown being in the second category though, I wonder if that assessment places climate breakdown separately from other linked co-/compound impacts from human overconsumption,
such as biodiversity collapse … (EIA 101) This journalistic polemic makes the case well enough…
Addressing Climate Change Will Not “Save the Planet”
https://theintercept.com/2022/12/03/climate-biodiversity-green-energy/
“The crux of the problem is that mainstream environmentalists have siloed climate change as a phenomenon apart from the broad human ecological footprint, separate
from deforestation, overgrazing of livestock, megafauna kill-off, collapsing fisheries, desertification, depleted freshwater, soil degradation, oceanic garbage gyres, toxification of rainfall with microplastics, and on and on — the myriad biospheric effects
of breakneck growth.”
In terms of problem conceptualisation and risk perception, perhaps we should be focusing more on growth/overconsumption as the main risk, rather than climate.
Daniel Black
Programme Director, TRUUD
Tackling
Root Causes Upstream of Unhealthy Urban Development
Population Health Sciences
Bristol Medical School
07725 998 550
__________________
From:
Martin Birley <[log in to unmask]>
Date: Monday, 5 December 2022 at 10:29
To: Daniel Black <[log in to unmask]>
Cc: [log in to unmask] <[log in to unmask]>
Subject: Re: AI and the future of HIA
Daniel and all
There is also a unit at Oxford called Future of Humanity Institute. One of the Fellows is Toby Ord who published The Precipice:
Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity (2020) which is very readable. The existential risk community discuss mitigation measures for AI, but perhaps not the way the impact assessment community would.
For those who haven't seen: existential risk destroys humanity permanently, and this is a real concern about AI. By contrast, cataclysmic risk spares some of the world population. Climate breakdown is placed
in the second category.
Dr Martin Birley HonMFPH
BirleyHIA, Consultants in Health Impact Assessment
Mobile +44 (0) 7725040361
Mail: 7 Manley Close, Hartrigg Oaks, New Earswick, York YO32 4DN
Skype(mic/cam) martinbir
http://www.BirleyHIA.co.uk/
Publications include:
2011 "Health Impact Assessment: Principles and Practice", also available in Chinese and in Ebooks.
2018 "Health Impact Assessment: a good practice sourcebook", (Asian Development Bank, with colleagues).
2021
Health Impact Assessment: a tool for intersectoral collaboration (with Robert Bos)
BirleyHIA monitors e-mails to minimise the risk of viruses. Whilst we have taken reasonable steps to scan this e-mail, we do not accept liability for any virus that may be contained
in it.
On Mon, 5 Dec 2022 at 10:14, Daniel Black <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
You may be aware already, but in case not, UoCambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk has a core theme on AI. Looking (very briefly) at their blurb, I get the impression it’s not questioning whether promulgating AI or not is a good or bad thing, but more about how we best live with it…
https://www.cser.ac.uk/research/risks-from-artificial-intelligence/
Uni of Bristol also has a growing research theme in the broader area of digital development and social impacts: Digital Societies and Bristol Digital Futures Institute:
https://www.bristol.ac.uk/fssl/research/groups/digital-societies/
https://www.bristol.ac.uk/bristol-digital-futures-institute/
Bw,
Daniel Black
Programme Director, TRUUD
Tackling Root Causes Upstream of Unhealthy Urban Development
Population Health Sciences
Bristol Medical School
07725 998 550
__________________
From: Health Impact Assessment - International <[log in to unmask]> on behalf of Martin Birley <[log in to unmask]>
Date: Monday, 5 December 2022 at 08:57
To: [log in to unmask] <[log in to unmask]>
Subject: Re: AI and the future of HIALiz
There are some good books on existential risk that rate Artificial Generalized Intelligence as high risk.
Martin Birley
Mobile +44 (0) 7725040361
7 Manley Close, Hartrigg Oaks, New Earswick, York YO32 4DN
Skype(mic/cam) martinbir
On Mon, 5 Dec 2022, 08:48 Liz Green (Public Health Wales), <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
HI Martin
We have not considered the tools to support HIA but are definitely considering carrying out a HIA of the health and equity impacts of AI.
Dymuniadau gorau / Best wishes
Liz
Liz Green FFPH, ACIEH
Ymgynghorydd Iechyd y Cyhoedd, Consultant in Public Health, Policy and
Polisi ac Iechyd Rhyngwladol / International Health / Programme
Cyfarwyddwr y Rhaglen argyfer Director for Health Impact Assessment
Asesu’r Effaith ar Iechyd
Iechyd Cyhoeddus Cymru
Uned Asesu’r Effaith ar Iechyd (WHIASU), Polisi ac Iechyd Rhyngwladol, Canolfan Gydweithredol Sefydliad Iechyd y Byd ar Fuddsoddi ar gyfer Iechyd a Llesiant (WHO CC)
Neuadd Croesnewydd
Wrecsam
LL13 7YP
Ffon:01978 313 664
ebost:
Public Health Wales
Wales Health Impact Assessment Support Unit (WHIASU), Policy
and International Health,
WHO Collaborating Centre on Investment for Health & Well-being (WHO CC)
Creosnewydd Hall
Wrexham
LL13 7YP
Phone: 01978 313 664
email:
Website: www.whiasu.wales.nhs.uk
Error! Filename not specified.Error! Filename not specified.
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From: Health Impact Assessment - International <[log in to unmask]> On Behalf Of Martin Birley
Sent: 05 December 2022 08:45
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: AI and the future of HIA
WARNING: This email originated from outside of NHS Wales. Do not open links or attachments unless you know the content is safe.
Dear colleagues
I wonder if others, like me, are considering how the recent developments in artificial intelligence might provide additional tools for use in Health Impact Assessment. As a very simple test of this, I entered a few questions into the latest AI chat bot. The apparent richness of the answers surprised me and I provide a screenshot.
Do others have experience?
Martin Birley from Tablet
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