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Here in my part of North Wales residents regularly need to stop feeding the birds, because the Sparrowhawks get to know where the best snack are to be found. So what might look like a decline in the population of birds may simply show that they're smart enough to stay away. Must resist the temptation to extrapolate from small samples. Robert From: email list for Radical Statistics <[log in to unmask]> On Behalf Of BYRNE, DAVE S. Sent: 30 September 2020 14:52 To: [log in to unmask] Subject: Re: Record low number of British butterflies baffles scientists.. False news crisis - a warning for any statistical survey of time varying phenomena. Sparrowhawk? David Byrne Ph.D., FAcSS see my recent book: Class after Industry: a complex realist approach https://www.palgrave.com/gb/book/9783030026431 ________________________________ From: John Whittington <[log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]>> Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2020 2:24 PM To: BYRNE, DAVE S. <[log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]>>; [log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]> <[log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]>> Subject: Re: Record low number of British butterflies baffles scientists.. False news crisis - a warning for any statistical survey of time varying phenomena. At 13:02 30/09/2020, BYRNE, DAVE S. wrote: ...Small birds are now heavily reliant on garden feeding. That's what stimulated my comment. We have a couple of bird feeders outside of our kitchen window, and these are usually teeming with small birds (up to and including woodpeckers) throughout the year, including the summer - but we haven't seen a single bird on them for months, and I haven't had to fill up the feeders for well over 6 months (usually about once oper week, sometimes more). Kind Regards, John ________________________________ From: email list for Radical Statistics <[log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]>> on behalf of Moore, Robert <[log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]>> Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2020 12:54 PM To: [log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]> <[log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]>> Subject: Re: Record low number of British butterflies baffles scientists.. False news crisis - a warning for any statistical survey of time varying phenomena. If I've seen any swallows this year - it's been in single figures. Wasps, a really notable absence. When I took my lunch into the garden on Monday two wasps immediately turned up. One cleared off, the other didn't bother me. Probably didn't like the look of my lunch. Annoying as they can be, they do have a role to play in the great scheme of things. Lindy does daily counts and the annual butterfly census for this area - very sharp decline in numbers this year, but this has happened before and numbers usually recover the next year. To return to stats - maps of the distribution of birds, butterflies etc always look like human population maps. It's people that do the counting so one would not expect it to be otherwise. But interesting things might be happening where there aren't any people observing. While there might be a few ecologists out in the less populated areas they cannot provide the density of observation that you have in peoples' back gardens and parks. Perhaps in any research project there is always an element of 'what's happening where I'm not looking?' Robert From: email list for Radical Statistics <[log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]>> On Behalf Of Roger Boyle Sent: 30 September 2020 12:09 To: [log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]> Subject: Re: Record low number of British butterflies baffles scientists.. False news crisis - a warning for any statistical survey of time varying phenomena. I've also noticed an absence of wasps - which some may find positive, but it does seem concerning. There were rather more than normal in West Wales. John ---------------------------------------------------------------- Dr John Whittington, Voice: +44 (0) 1296 730225 Mediscience Services Fax: +44 (0) 1296 738893 Twyford Manor, Twyford, E-mail: [log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]> Buckingham MK18 4EL, UK ---------------------------------------------------------------- ****************************************************** Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your message will go only to the sender of this message. 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If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's 'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically to [log in to unmask] Disclaimer: The messages sent to this list are the views of the sender and cannot be assumed to be representative of the range of views held by subscribers to the Radical Statistics Group. To find out more about Radical Statistics and its aims and activities and read current and past issues of our newsletter you are invited to visit our web site www.radstats.org.uk. *******************************************************