Print

---

Come on, guys. Dido doesn't understand the modeling. In fact, she is a serial failure. She seems to have been incompetent in every important job she has undertaken. But, no doubt, being married to a Tory MP helps her escape from the consequences of her failures. How did she get her title?

larry

[log in to unmask]">

John Whittington is right re individual cases but cross case comparison - the comparative method - can help without ever providing exact predictions. So retrospectively it will be possible using tools like Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to explore what has happened where in relation to policy developments and timings. That of course will be after the fair.

David Byrne

---

From: email list for Radical Statistics <[log in to unmask]> on behalf of John Whittington <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Thursday, September 17, 2020 9:24 PM
To: [log in to unmask] <[log in to unmask]>
Subject: Re: "The modellers didn't predict this outbreak": Dido Harding

 

At 17:41 17/09/2020, John Bibby wrote:
>Is this true?  ... What predictions WERE made? .... What caused this
>- what was wrong? ........ What other questions are we missing?

Is it really a matter of 'wrong', rather than simply that it is not
really a mathematical ('modellable') issue?

With all the necessary/usual assumptions and caveats, modellers can
attempt to predict what effect particular changes in transmission
(i.e. 'R') (nationally or regionally) will have on disease incidence
and prevalence - but, to my mind, that's about it.

Beyond that, the modellers have exactly the same problem as
government - not knowing how behavior of people will respond to
attempts to relax or tighten (nationally of regionally) particular
measures intended to reduce transmission, and how the attempted
changes, and changed behaviour, will actually affect the (national or
regional) 'R' value.

As far as I can see, the only way to ascertain the effect of
particular changes is 'empirical' (aka 'suck it and see') - and even
that is probably next-to-impossible when all sorts of different
things are being relaxed and/or tightened (and in different places)
more-or-less simultaneously.

Kind Regards,

John

----------------------------------------------------------------
Dr John Whittington,       Voice:    +44 (0) 1296 730225
Mediscience Services       Fax:      +44 (0) 1296 738893
Twyford Manor, Twyford,    E-mail:   [log in to unmask]
Buckingham  MK18 4EL, UK
----------------------------------------------------------------

******************************************************
Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your
message will go only to the sender of this message.
If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's
'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically
to [log in to unmask].
Disclaimer: The messages sent to this list are the views of the sender and cannot be assumed to be representative of the range of views held by subscribers to the Radical Statistics Group. To find out more about Radical Statistics and its aims and activities and read current and past issues of our newsletter you are invited to visit our web site www.radstats.org.uk.
*******************************************************

****************************************************** Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your message will go only to the sender of this message. If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's 'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically to [log in to unmask]. Disclaimer: The messages sent to this list are the views of the sender and cannot be assumed to be representative of the range of views held by subscribers to the Radical Statistics Group. To find out more about Radical Statistics and its aims and activities and read current and past issues of our newsletter you are invited to visit our web site www.radstats.org.uk. *******************************************************