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At 13:29 19/09/2020, David Gordon wrote: >.... So a ballpark estimate of the recorded cases to >infections ratio is about 1 in 3 at the moment BUT the test system >is being overwhelmed so give is another few weeks and your original >guesstimate of 1 in 10 may not be far from the truth!? I don't think that we will ever be able to more than guess have many 'actual cases' there were back in March/April, hence the ratio of reported cases (positive test) to actual cases, be that 1 in 10 or whatever. However, I think it inconceivable that the ratio could now (or any time in the future) become remotely as high as it was back then, when we were essentially only testing those already seriously ill with probable Covid-19 infection. Kind Regards, John ---------------------------------------------------------------- Dr John Whittington, Voice: +44 (0) 1296 730225 Mediscience Services Fax: +44 (0) 1296 738893 Twyford Manor, Twyford, E-mail: [log in to unmask] Buckingham MK18 4EL, UK ---------------------------------------------------------------- ****************************************************** Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your message will go only to the sender of this message. If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's 'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically to [log in to unmask] Disclaimer: The messages sent to this list are the views of the sender and cannot be assumed to be representative of the range of views held by subscribers to the Radical Statistics Group. To find out more about Radical Statistics and its aims and activities and read current and past issues of our newsletter you are invited to visit our web site www.radstats.org.uk. *******************************************************