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I'm with Rod and Ben. It is real. On Wed, Jun 10, 2020 at 3:37 PM Christie A <[log in to unmask]> wrote: > The New York Times has a story about mortality data. They compare > different mortality shocks to give a sense of scale. > > https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/world/coronavirus-history.html?referringSource=articleShare > > And this story gets into the details of how deaths are accounted for. > https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-deaths/ > > best, > Christie Aschwanden > > > On Jun 10, 2020, at 11:58 AM, Rod Jackson <[log in to unmask]> > wrote: > > I’m with you Ben. > > Cheers Rod > > * * * * * * * * > sent from my phone > > > On 11/06/2020, at 01:37, Benjamin Djulbegovic MD <[log in to unmask]> > wrote: > > As previously noted: > 1) everyone agrees that COVID19 is a new disease and can cause death > 2) you cannot distinguish if someone dies WITH vs FROM COVID19 (ie it is > not possible to discern the effect of co-morbidites on COVID19 death rates) > 3) The most reliable statistics is calculation of EXCESS of death rates ie > comparison of the contemporary death rates with those in the previous years > (ideally on weekly basis) > > The data are now pretty much clear: the COVID19 has driven the excess > death rates through the roof. Now, some people say that many of these > deaths is due to non-COVID19 related diseases (e/g., due to heart attacks > because people feared to go to the ER/hospitals etc). But, even if one > takes this rather extreme position, you still get it that in the most > skeptical scenarios more than 60% of deaths are due to COVID19. And, > because data increasingly show that social distancing measures have been > highly effective in reducing death rates (>80-90%), the true excess death > rates (without interventions) is much higher. > > So, I don’t believe we should anymore question whether COVID19 is behind > clearly established increase in death rates. It would be better to focus > our energy on how we successfully control this menace while going back to > normal life. > Ben > > Sent from my iPad - excuse typos and brevity > > On Jun 10, 2020, at 9:01 AM, David Richard Leslie Cawthorpe < > [log in to unmask]> wrote: > > > ------------------------------ > > [Attention: This email came from an external source. Do not open > attachments or click on links from unknown senders or unexpected emails.] > > ------------------------------ > This has been my thought for some time that coronavirus is over > represented, perhaps especially in the aged. > > D > > On Jun 10, 2020, at 6:58 AM, EGW BWC <[log in to unmask]> wrote: > > > [△EXTERNAL] > > True as it seems any one die now Would be linked to corona. > > Sent from my iPhone > > On 10 Jun 2020, at 13:37, David Richard Leslie Cawthorpe < > [log in to unmask]> wrote: > > > > > BBC World service radio news today featured a rather fearful article that > Iran was beginning to experience a second wave of coronavirus 19 outbreak. > > Wide ranges of death rate were presented as possible. > > 1. How is the actual death rate established? > It seems to me that without testing, even postmortem, establishing a true > death rate is very difficult and current estimates highly speculative, as > are infection rates in the absence of specific and sensitive testing. > > 2. What is the effect of morbidity on cOVID-19 related death? > Again, in the absence of specific and sensitive testing with very low > false positive and false negative rates, and in the absence of formal study > of both past and current hyper morbidity, establishing a true understanding > of risk for both infection and mortality is very difficult and still in > play globally. > > 3. Finally, going way back, given the current state of testing, how do we > distinguish the current coronavirus from the coronavirus distribution > outlined in Dr. Wodarg's video on the distribution of viruses that are > testable in every annual seasonal flu. > > Best, > D > > For those of you who want to see the video (in German with English and > Spanish subtitles): https://portal.internationalgme.org/neweventres > <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://portal.internationalgme.org/neweventres__;!!Fou38LsQmgU!_x5MyWr1GbgrSTUTu2tAMYpbk3oXAkfJewHnu4pSGkm28mMCTOTIhKlqEh05mPZlTg$> > > > > > ------------------------------ > > To unsubscribe from the EVIDENCE-BASED-HEALTH list, click the following > link: > > https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/webadmin?SUBED1=EVIDENCE-BASED-HEALTH&A=1 > <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/webadmin?SUBED1=EVIDENCE-BASED-HEALTH&A=1__;!!Fou38LsQmgU!_x5MyWr1GbgrSTUTu2tAMYpbk3oXAkfJewHnu4pSGkm28mMCTOTIhKlqEh3e6m-BVw$> > > > ------------------------------ > > To unsubscribe from the EVIDENCE-BASED-HEALTH list, click the following > link: > > https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/webadmin?SUBED1=EVIDENCE-BASED-HEALTH&A=1 > <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/webadmin?SUBED1=EVIDENCE-BASED-HEALTH&A=1__;!!Fou38LsQmgU!_x5MyWr1GbgrSTUTu2tAMYpbk3oXAkfJewHnu4pSGkm28mMCTOTIhKlqEh3e6m-BVw$> > > ------------------------------ > ------------------------------------------------------------ > -SECURITY/CONFIDENTIALITY WARNING- > > This message and any attachments are intended solely for the individual or > entity to which they are addressed. 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