On Jun 10, 2020, at 11:58 AM, Rod Jackson <[log in to unmask]> wrote:I’m with you Ben.
Cheers Rod
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sent from my phone
On 11/06/2020, at 01:37, Benjamin Djulbegovic MD <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
As previously noted:1) everyone agrees that COVID19 is a new disease and can cause death
2) you cannot distinguish if someone dies WITH vs FROM COVID19 (ie it is not possible to discern the effect of co-morbidites on COVID19 death rates)3) The most reliable statistics is calculation of EXCESS of death rates ie comparison of the contemporary death rates with those in the previous years (ideally on weekly basis)
The data are now pretty much clear: the COVID19 has driven the excess death rates through the roof. Now, some people say that many of these deaths is due to non-COVID19 related diseases (e/g., due to heart attacks because people feared to go to the ER/hospitals etc). But, even if one takes this rather extreme position, you still get it that in the most skeptical scenarios more than 60% of deaths are due to COVID19. And, because data increasingly show that social distancing measures have been highly effective in reducing death rates (>80-90%), the true excess death rates (without interventions) is much higher.
So, I don’t believe we should anymore question whether COVID19 is behind clearly established increase in death rates. It would be better to focus our energy on how we successfully control this menace while going back to normal life.Ben
Sent from my iPad - excuse typos and brevity
On Jun 10, 2020, at 9:01 AM, David Richard Leslie Cawthorpe <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
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This has been my thought for some time that coronavirus is over represented, perhaps especially in the aged.
D
On Jun 10, 2020, at 6:58 AM, EGW BWC <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
[△EXTERNAL]
True as it seems any one die now Would be linked to corona.
Sent from my iPhone
On 10 Jun 2020, at 13:37, David Richard Leslie Cawthorpe <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
BBC World service radio news today featured a rather fearful article that Iran was beginning to experience a second wave of coronavirus 19 outbreak.
Wide ranges of death rate were presented as possible.
1. How is the actual death rate established?It seems to me that without testing, even postmortem, establishing a true death rate is very difficult and current estimates highly speculative, as are infection rates in the absence of specific and sensitive testing.
2. What is the effect of morbidity on cOVID-19 related death?Again, in the absence of specific and sensitive testing with very low false positive and false negative rates, and in the absence of formal study of both past and current hyper morbidity, establishing a true understanding of risk for both infection and mortality is very difficult and still in play globally.
3. Finally, going way back, given the current state of testing, how do we distinguish the current coronavirus from the coronavirus distribution outlined in Dr. Wodarg's video on the distribution of viruses that are testable in every annual seasonal flu.
Best,D
For those of you who want to see the video (in German with English and Spanish subtitles): https://portal.internationalgme.org/neweventres
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