And, as people keep questioning models (that turned out the ONLY available tools we have had for policy decision-making during this pandemic), the link to George Box’s famous dictum about modeling is really timely reminder:
“Since
assumptions imply some kind of scientific model, I believe that it is necessary to look at the process of scientific modelling itself to understand the nature of and the need for robust procedures. Against such a view it might be urged that some useful robust
procedures have been derived empirically without an explicitly stated model. However, an empirical procedure implies some UNSTATED MODEL and there is often great virtue in bringing into the open the kind of assumptions that lead to useful methods. “
This
is often forgotten- all inferences require modeling, some are more correct than others (data never speak for themselves )
Ben
Sent from my iPad - excuse typos and brevity
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I agree, this is outstanding , thank you!
Best
Amy
Dear David,
Thank you very much for the very informative article.
Dear Abdelhamid,
Best, David
Dear EBMers,
These days, the R0 value of the pandemic Covid 19 is of extreme importance for taking decisions regarding the policies to fight it.
It also tells us the current trend of the rate of spread on infection.
Can anyone please elaborate on how to calculate it from the daily published numbers of new cases.
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