Rod, 
You hit at the most important issue but arguably the most critical a bone of contention in the COVID19 debate:
“ Those countries that heeded modelling studies are not burying the numbers of people that those countries that didn’t are.  ”
Would you mind elaborating? Provide some evidence for this statement...
Thanks
Best
Ben 


Sent from my iPad - excuse typos and brevity

On Apr 21, 2020, at 3:19 AM, Rod Jackson <[log in to unmask]> wrote:



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Hi Tom. I’m not sure I got the point of the conclusion of your article. Could you expand on what you mean. With regard to mortality data, you say:

The simple rule IS: 1) examine, analyse and interpret the data to fully understand what is going on; 2) Don’t model “what’s next” until you fully understand point 1.

However, deaths are just one, albeit critical, measure of the impact of the Covid pandemic.

It’s not deaths that have overwhelmed health services around the world, it’s the rate at which sick people are admitted to hospitals and ICUs and need artificial ventilation - measured in units of minutes and hours, not in seasons as in your mortality graph.

I may be missing the point of your article, but I also don’t think we have the luxury to spend the time to fully understand the data, before acting. Those countries that heeded modelling studies are not burying the numbers of people that those countries that didn’t are.  

Best wishes Rod

Rod Jackson
CVD epidemiologist
University of Auckland
New Zealand

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On 21/04/2020, at 21:01, Tom Jefferson <[log in to unmask]> wrote:


https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-tracking-european-mortality/

Dr Tom Jefferson
Senior Associate Tutor, University of Oxford
Researcher, Nordic Cochrane Centre
Visiting Professor, Newcastle University



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