Rod, You hit at the most important issue but arguably the most critical a bone of contention in the COVID19 debate: “ Those countries that heeded modelling studies are not burying the numbers of people that those countries that didn’t are. ” Would you mind elaborating? Provide some evidence for this statement... Thanks Best Ben Sent from my iPad - excuse typos and brevity On Apr 21, 2020, at 3:19 AM, Rod Jackson <[log in to unmask]> wrote: ________________________________ [Attention: This email came from an external source. Do not open attachments or click on links from unknown senders or unexpected emails.] ________________________________ Hi Tom. I’m not sure I got the point of the conclusion of your article. Could you expand on what you mean. With regard to mortality data, you say: The simple rule IS: 1) examine, analyse and interpret the data to fully understand what is going on; 2) Don’t model “what’s next” until you fully understand point 1. However, deaths are just one, albeit critical, measure of the impact of the Covid pandemic. It’s not deaths that have overwhelmed health services around the world, it’s the rate at which sick people are admitted to hospitals and ICUs and need artificial ventilation - measured in units of minutes and hours, not in seasons as in your mortality graph. I may be missing the point of your article, but I also don’t think we have the luxury to spend the time to fully understand the data, before acting. Those countries that heeded modelling studies are not burying the numbers of people that those countries that didn’t are. Best wishes Rod Rod Jackson CVD epidemiologist University of Auckland New Zealand * * * * * * * * sent from my phone On 21/04/2020, at 21:01, Tom Jefferson <[log in to unmask]> wrote: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-tracking-european-mortality/<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-tracking-european-mortality/__;!!Fou38LsQmgU!7vzWC1kIxcJD-tBhs05ybAt8PJgAdkjOY7WK8-fO7XKf3iQmPn8dwWX-D9SIN5C0Dg$> Dr Tom Jefferson Senior Associate Tutor, University of Oxford Researcher, Nordic Cochrane Centre Visiting Professor, Newcastle University ________________________________ To unsubscribe from the EVIDENCE-BASED-HEALTH list, click the following link: https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/webadmin?SUBED1=EVIDENCE-BASED-HEALTH&A=1<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/webadmin?SUBED1=EVIDENCE-BASED-HEALTH&A=1__;!!Fou38LsQmgU!7vzWC1kIxcJD-tBhs05ybAt8PJgAdkjOY7WK8-fO7XKf3iQmPn8dwWX-D9R3FYGRBw$> ________________________________ To unsubscribe from the EVIDENCE-BASED-HEALTH list, click the following link: https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/webadmin?SUBED1=EVIDENCE-BASED-HEALTH&A=1<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/webadmin?SUBED1=EVIDENCE-BASED-HEALTH&A=1__;!!Fou38LsQmgU!7vzWC1kIxcJD-tBhs05ybAt8PJgAdkjOY7WK8-fO7XKf3iQmPn8dwWX-D9R3FYGRBw$> ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------ -SECURITY/CONFIDENTIALITY WARNING- This message and any attachments are intended solely for the individual or entity to which they are addressed. This communication may contain information that is privileged, confidential, or exempt from disclosure under applicable law (e.g., personal health information, research data, financial information). Because this e-mail has been sent without encryption, individuals other than the intended recipient may be able to view the information, forward it to others or tamper with the information without the knowledge or consent of the sender. If you are not the intended recipient, or the employee or person responsible for delivering the message to the intended recipient, any dissemination, distribution or copying of the communication is strictly prohibited. If you received the communication in error, please notify the sender immediately by replying to this message and deleting the message and any accompanying files from your system. If, due to the security risks, you do not wish to receive further communications via e-mail, please reply to this message and inform the sender that you do not wish to receive further e-mail from the sender. (LCP301) ------------------------------------------------------------ ######################################################################## To unsubscribe from the EVIDENCE-BASED-HEALTH list, click the following link: https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/webadmin?SUBED1=EVIDENCE-BASED-HEALTH&A=1