 |
 |
At 13:03 31/03/2020, Moore, Robert wrote: >I guess most list members will have seen this – >but just in case some haven’t …… Indeed, so I fear that these ONS figures are going to be of very little value in relation to tracking the progress of our outbreak, and of the effects of measures we take to try to limit spread.... ... the ONS weekly figures relate to deaths registered in the week ending 11 days previously (hence the week starting 18 days previously) and, given the 5-day window for registering a death (assuming it has not been extended) means that it could relate to deaths up to 23 days prior to release of the report. If we assume a 25 day period between infection and death (5 days incubation + 6 days mild illness + 14 days hospitalisation prior to death), that means that it could be anything up to 48 days before the effects of containment/mitigation measures were reflected in the ONS death figures. Kind Regards, John ---------------------------------------------------------------- Dr John Whittington, Voice: +44 (0) 1296 730225 Mediscience Services Fax: +44 (0) 1296 738893 Twyford Manor, Twyford, E-mail: [log in to unmask] Buckingham MK18 4EL, UK ---------------------------------------------------------------- ****************************************************** Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your message will go only to the sender of this message. If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's 'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically to [log in to unmask] Disclaimer: The messages sent to this list are the views of the sender and cannot be assumed to be representative of the range of views held by subscribers to the Radical Statistics Group. To find out more about Radical Statistics and its aims and activities and read current and past issues of our newsletter you are invited to visit our web site www.radstats.org.uk. *******************************************************